Geelong Cup - Weights
Does the handicapper carry out an important role these days? I ask this after reading the Handicapping conditions for racing in Victoria, Below we look at the “big“ races, the Group Races.
With the help of Racing Victoria I can retell you that,
In the majority of Victorian Handicap events the minimum weight now relates to 54.0kg and the minimum top weight at the declaration of weights shall not be less than 60kg.
The minimum top weight at the declaration of weights in Group One and Two races has now been set at 59kg to ensure the best possible fields in terms of quality are attracted to Group races run under Handicap conditions. The Caulfield and Melbourne Cups also have a minimum top weight of 59kg.
I don’t really understand this as I read it that if only poorly performed horses were entered, the “best” of the poorly performed entrants would be alloted 59kg. No quality has been attracted. Maybe I do know what they mean but it is poorly worded.
The minimum weight in Group 1 Races are as follows:
• Oakleigh Plate, Newmarket Hcp, Sir Rupert Clarke: 52kg (for 3yos 50kg)
• Toorak Hcp: 52kg
• Caulfield and Melbourne Cups: 51kg (for 3yos 49kg)
• For other Black Type Races the minimum weight is 54kg in Listed and Group 3 events and 53kg for Group 2 Events.
• In BM100 races with the minimum weight to be set at 53kg.
The Geelong Cup is currently a Group 3 race and this is the highest rating the Cup has been in its long history. After gaining a Gold Ticket into the Melbourne Cup for the Geelong Cup winner, maybe the next target for the Club will be to attract the quality of horse required, on an annual basis, to have the Cup upgraded to a Group 2 event.
But let’s not get carried away, all I hope for this year is that the race attracts horses with an ability and a matching record so that we have the 59kg top weight, or higher, filled by a runner who deserves that weight and that weights do not need to be artificially raised to meet the minimum top weight criteria.
Historical Weights
The Table on the Cup main page showed the Cup winners in historical order and told us the weight the winner carried and minimum weight the years the race was conducted.
The year that Media Puzzle saluted was the last year that the minimum weight was 51kg. Evolution meant that the human race got heavier and jockeys were no exception. Some theorise that it was not evolution but the introduction of fast food.
When I am looking at weights I use the term and use the weights known as “Relative Weights”.
Simply, it is the difference between the weight to be carried in today’s race compared to the weight carried Yesterday’s race.
We mentioned the Minimum weights earlier and it mainly being 54ks. Becuase there is no minimum weight in WFA or SW(P) races, I use a weight of 52kg in these races. You can use this or change as you see fit, just be consistent.
In the above Table, the runners are in order of those who have the highest Relative Weight comparisons down to the lowest Relative Weight comparison.
What do we see in this Table?
The Top Six, highlighted in GREEN, contain 4 runners that had their start previous to the Geelong Cup, in the United Kindom or France. Maybe the handicapper is understimating the strength of their European form.
Three runners from the Top Ten, all with European form, have gome onto also win the Melbourne Cup. Maybe the handicapper is understimating the strength of their European form.
Another of these horse who won at Geelong and had European form ran second in the Melbourne Cup and another ran fourth.
One point to notice for this years Geelong Cup, do not underestimate horses with European form.
The other point to note is 6 winners from 22 editions of the Cup have the highest Relative Weights.
Maybe the handicapper did get it right? With a Golden Ticket available to this years winner I am giving more credence to the chances of the European runners, especially those that are not yet qualified.
IMHO, the European race for Melbourne Cup form and Geelong Cup form is the Prix Kergolay, a 3000m race run at Deauville, France.
The Melbourne Cup nomination from those that contested this year’s Kergolay, is Presage Nocturne. It carried the equivalent of 60kg at Set Weights. That’s a Relative Weight of 8kg.