Lean Punting
Call us what you will. Gamblers, punters, investors or wastrels, it’s all the same to the non player. I will use the term, to start, punters and as punters, as part of our dedication to cleaning out the tote and bookmakers we have all had systems, media personalities we have followed and used the latest bankroll management system. What we have in common as well, we have never followed them for too long. The next get rich quick system piqued our interest and we veered down another path.
My first experience with the punt was through my Uncle Vin. He had a Daily Double every Saturday on the Melbourne Metropoltan meeting. He took numbers 2 & 4 in both legs. His house number was 24.
I also had an Uncle Bob, he only had a bet when a runner had 0 4 as the placings at its last 2 starts.
Systems can be simple
The flip side to my Uncles was Bill Benter (who I really want to call Uncle Bill), the punter who “cracked”the code. Benter used computers and wrote an algorythm that couldn’t lost at the track. Bill and his team took out the Hong Kong Racing Club’s Triple Trio, picking the first three horses across the line, in any order, in three selected races. The odds that day of doing so were approximately 10 million to 1. It paid 16 million to 1.
Systems can be complex
In 2015 I veered into my second career, Efficiency Expert, with expert a word I do not like to use. I use veered as this change of career was only a slight move away from what I had practiced in my early life and previous employment, the practice of common sense.
The company that paid for my services had heard of 5S and wanted me to implement it in their production facilities. 5S had been developed and was known as an integral part of the Toyota Production System. It in itself was born as a result of the Japanese car giant executives visit to an American super market.
Lean methodology was born and has spawned many iterations since.
5S on the punt
Many business owners want to improve their methods and facilities but sell 5S short by just thinking about it as a method to keep their factories clean, neat and tidy.
5S is not just a cleaning exercise. It is “how things can be improved” to “provide greater efficiency, in a better environment, with the tools you need”. It must include the ideas and concepts of ALL employees.
5S is Continuous Improvement. Continuous Improvement should be part of your business strategy where the aim is to provide ever-increasing value to you and your customers through total employee involvement in the reduction of waste and the costs associated with that waste.
So how do we apply the above philosophy to the punt?
What about “5S is not just a new betting system. It is “how things can be improved” to “provide greater profit, making my entire environment better by using the correct tools”.
It must include new ideas and concepts that I am willing to embrace.
5S is Continuous Improvement. “Continuous Improvement should be part of my punting strategy where the aim is to provide ever-increasing profit to my bankroll. To sustain the ever-increasing bankroll by finding value based winners.“
I think most of us would be happy with that result.
“Continuous Improvement is not about the things you do well – that’s work. Continuous Improvement is about removing the things that get in the way of your work. The headaches, the things that slow you down, that is what Continuous Improvement is all about”.
– Bruce Hamilton, President, GBMP Group
“The most dangerous kind of waste is the waste we do not recognize”. ~ Shigeo Shingo, World’s Leading Expert on Manufacturing Processes
“Playing the races appears to be the one business in which men believe they can succeed without special study, special talent, or special exertion.” - Pittsburg Phil, Legend.
What is 5S?
5S is the name of a workplace organization method that uses a list of five Japanese words: seiri, seiton, seiso, seiketsu, and shitsuke. Transliterated or translated into English, they all start with the letter "S".
I have also given them 5 punting terms we should all know, also starting with “S”.
Waste
and eliminating it
What are the 5 biggest wastes in any production facility? In no particular order, I believe they are,
Walking to get equipment, to return equipment, to get a drink etc.,
Searching for Equipment.
Operations that would be best suited elsewhere.
Excessive Inventory.
Bending, twisting and turning.
And in punting, again, in no particular order, I believe they are,
Deciding which form guide to use
Deciding which tipster to follow
Deciding which type of race to punt on
Deciding what type of bet we should place
Having too many bets
The one thing on the punt that you cannot have too many of is betting providers.
“Time waste is different from material waste in that there can be no salvage. The easiest of all wastes and the hardest to correct is the waste of time, because wasted time does not litter the floor like wasted material”.
– Henry Ford, Inventor
“The most dangerous kind of waste is the waste we do not recognize”. ~ Shigeo Shingo, World’s Leading Expert on Manufacturing Processes
GEMBA
Now, I am not going to waste your time fixing your wastage problem at your place of employment, your garage or even your sock drawer, but for punting, I want to introduce the concept of GEMBA.
In business GEMBA refers to “the place where the value is created”. In 5S GEMBA means “that problems are visible”.
In punting GEMBA is our mind, where all the decisions are made.
I want you to implement a 5 period, 6 minute assessment plan by conducting a GEMBA self assessment.
• Select a period when you would normally do the form. It can be any day of the week but preferably when you are doing form for your largest punting day of the week.
• Arrange your time so that you are doing this self assessment where you normally do your form (if you have a set spot where you do your form) such as an office desk, the kitchen table or on the couch watching the footy.
• Organise your time. You can spend 6 minutes and only 6 minutes on the 5 “things to assess” below. I would suggest that each 6 minute assessment be performed at least 30 minutes apart if you perform them in one session.
• All you need are your memory, a notepad and a pencil.
• The assessment will be most beneficial if you can find a spot where you are most likely not to be disturbed (on the couch watching the footy is not ideal).
Period 1 – Reach into your mind and recall and then record all the form guides you use, either a paper form guide or electronic form guide. Don’t forget when you are on the punt at a bricks and mortar venue, include any form guides you may use there.
Period 2 – Reach into your mind and recall, and then record, all the tipsters that you listen to especially if you take serious notice of their tips.
Period 3 – Reach into your mind and recall, and then record, all the different classes of race that you punt on.
Period 4 – Reach into your mind and recall, and then record, all the different bet types you make over the course of the punting day. Win, Place, Trifecta’s, Quadrella’s etc.,
Period 5 - Reach into your mind, and recall and then record, how you keep track of your bets.
After you have completed each period of your Punters Self Assessment, take some time to reflect on how much time and effort your are putting into the punt and is all of it time well spent (gee, I missed the Blues skipper taking that great mark)? Could I have been doing something better or more enjoyable and could I have made more money on the punt if I was more organised.
If you were honest with yourself and found one area where you think you can improve upon, you will probably improve your selection methods for a month or until at least Carlton play Collingwood again.
If you found 2 or more areas where you can improve upon you need to continue reading the rest of this information.
Before we proceed, it is important that we look back at the 5S definitions and add a description of what we are attempting to achieve.
Before we take a closer look at the time wasters, I have found that in both business and on the punt that very often the more successful businesses and individuals who can benefit the most from having a look at a methodology such as 5S.
Successful companies may have grown quickly and had had a need to make decisions on the fly as to where that new piece of equipment should be placed, where they can we store the sprockets for this one and only order but they are still using in production 7 years later.
I have also seen successful punters start to get carried away with their success and start to punt in areas that become unprofitable. The punter who has an enormous success betting “win only” on the Sydney, Saturday Metropolitan meeting decides that the only difference in Melbourne is that they run anti-clockwise rather than clockwise. They start investing there as well. But if he (or we) look more closely, we see that there are many differences and maybe he (we) could have put more standards on the Sydney races or become more selective in another way and thus increase our profits, not fritter our profits away on a whole different ball game.
Later in life, my Uncle Vin moved to a smaller house as his daughters had moved out and he had become an empty nester. His new house was number 87. There was also a tote nearby. At that tote, he placed his Daily Double on 2,4 x 2,4.
Uncle Vin was also an adherent of 5S and didn’t even know it. After returning from the tote, then spent the afternoon in his shed, listening to the footy and the Daily Double races. He worked out that he could eliminate needless walking from the kitchen to the shed and back getting his beers if he bought himself another ‘fridge. With the money he had won on the Daily Double, he purchased that fridge and life was sweet. Did Uncle Vin also invent the beer fridge for his early man cave?
Eliminating the Waste
Period 1 – Reach into your mind and recall and then record all the form guides you use, either a paper form guide or electronic form guide. Don’t forget when you are on punt at a bricks and mortar venue, include any form guides you may use there.
Too many Form Guides
I loved the old days when the only form guide available was the paper form guide from the middle pages of the newspaper, every decent newspaper had one. There was also the best form guide of all from The Truth newspaper and the guide was about the only truth in the entire paper. I also, at one stage, shared a house with an eccentric punter who would only use The Sportsman, the “Punters Bible” which sadly was last published in May, 2023.
So there we were, Friday nights, preparing to play footy the next day with the kitchen table covered in guides, the Sportsman, the Sun, the Age and the Addy each housemate with his favourite or favourites. If someone woke early on Saturday, normally playing in the reserves, the Saturday version was also there, it was almost identical to the Friday version.
The information published by each paper was almost identical as well. Some may have used “M” for mud rather than “W” for wet or had the last 5 starts of a runner instead of the last 3 starts but basically, the information was the same.
Except for the Punters Bible.
In addition to the paper form guides, we also have a plethora of online form guides to choose from. Again, each provide the same basic information, today they include an image of the silks the jockey will wear, an absolute useless piece of information when doing the form. As is the name of the owners and other superfuous information but I digress.
The question remains, why do we each have a favourite, paper or electronic guide, when the information is almost identical? What secrets does the individual punter find in their favourite guide?
We can also head down to the pub and they also have their own unique form guide pinned to the wall. Not a lot of information compared to some, last 3 starts only compared to career starts available elsewhere yet punters pore over this information as if it will provide the key to eternal youth, why? What do we get out of any form?
Too much time is wasted looking at the same information time after time. Wouldn’t it be better to spend that time or even better a percentage of that time analysing the parts of the form that will provide consistent results?
I had a mate, not an Uncle, who after a counter lunch at his local watering hole would only back horses that had their number covered up by the drawing pin on the 3rd, 5th and 7th form sheets attached to the board on the wall. He was not a successful punter and would have been better served backing 2 & 4 and 4 & 2 in the Daily Double.
Hello, World!
Hello, World!
Period 2 – Reach into your mind and recall and then record all the tipsters that you listen to, watch or read and take notice of their tips
Too many Experts
Even the bloke backing the drawing pin covered numbers was an expert on the punt, particularly after a few beers. We all have our favourite media experts that we follow and when they tip one we like, we pile on. For Metropolitan meetings, we have the experts tipping from the time acceptance come out on Wednesday. By the time race time arrives, we have just about had a tip for the first 8 runners in the betting, if not more. Someone’s tipping the roughie.
But how consistent are these media tipsters? Are they just mug punters who have a stronger view and were lucky enough to be in the right place when employment opportunities arose? I would suggest that they were very good at tipping that got them their employment but I would further suggest but they were selective in what races they tipped and punted on at the start. But you will not get a job tipping on three or four races per week. To earn their keep they have to tip on a least the entire race card at a meeting. Some who dominate the media have to tip on races in three States and sometimes more.
Their selectiveness and therefore effectiveness has gone out the door. No-one can put enough time into more than 4 races a day if you are not a full time punter is my belief. Double that to 8 for those who are full time punters. You need to be selective.
When you are selective you can believe in your own tips. You can be your own favourite tipster and follow your own tips with a great deal of confidence.
You will not need to waste your time reading the tipping grid in newspapers, you will not need to waste your time watching television or Youtube panel shows and trying to sort out the tips from the “entertainment”. You can keep the radio tuned to easy listening.
I am not saying never listen to the experts, the tipsters or your punting mates. What I am saying is be selective, choose one or two and don’t waste your time, time that can be best spent on the important matters and time where your head can remain clear and uncluttered without too much (useless) information,
Uncle Vin never listened to wireless tipsters nor the local coat-tuggers. He had his selection method for both bets types and horse type worked out to the nth degree. He was selective.
Period 3 – Reach into your mind and recall and note how many different places you record your “method” of arriving at your selections. Do you make notes on a form guide, on a note pad, on your laptop or wherever?
Too Much Information
&
No Record Keeping
How much information do we keep in our mind? What was that one The Whale tipped on the radio this morning? Or The Croc on the T.V. last night. Gee, the Ugg Boot sounded confident about his horse. Then we pull out the Post It note that has someones elses tip written on it and we have not even started to do the form yet. Not even pulled out the form guide or turned on the computer.
We need to keep records to be succesful punters. There are two types of information for which we should keep records for. One is for the participants and how we will make our judicious selections, the other being records of the financial transactions we make on those selections. We will get to the financial records later but if do not have some type of selection making records there will be no need worry about the cash flow, we will have no cash to flow.
You, I or anybody can not punt successfully without having some sort of plan. Betting willy-nilly on any day of the week, on any type of race and having any type of bet will not assist you in making judicious selections. Everyone will win at some stage but that one big day will not normally make up for the losing days.
I can hear some of you screaming now, this bloke is telling me to have a plan yet he has three tables giving selections, one with 9 “stables“, one where he could be backing three or four horse in one race and then another with exotics, troi oi!
So I will give you another tip. I don’t back every runner who is paying over the “historic” price, I am judicious and check other records first. I do try and back every horse that is “overs” in the Zyrg table and I will only take exotics when I can’t find a winner, over the odds in the first two tables. Why, because I keep records. I am going to reward you here with details of the last record I look at before deciding where and when to bet.
Stick with me here as this does get very dry but I believe it will be worth your time taking this information in and deciding to start keeping better records.
The top row in the table above is how I have broken down the possible starting prices.
Let’s start by looking at “Odds On”.
A winning percentage of 16% for Odds On runners does not seem like a very good result does it? But when we look and see that Odds On runners only average 0.17 runners per race or they start once in every 6 races, the true strike rate comes to light, 60%.
60% translates to a SP of $1.67, therefore, I would consider, very much, any Odds On runner between say $1.70 and $1.95.
However, if I liked something or was tipped something that looks like starting between $8 and $10, it would get my investment as the strike rate for those prices means they should be starting at $6.25.
This second table comes from the same race type as the first table. It relates to the winners SP as the start prior to the win. If we look at the winning strike soley based on the overall number of winners, we would only be backing runners having their second start in “today’s” race.
Again, I beieve the real strike rate should be based on the number of starters from each group being analysed. When there are 2 first starters in the race, the actual winning strike rate is halved, it is now 10%.
So we keep our eyes open for a runner that started Odds On at its previous start. They only start on average once in every 14 or so races and so far in this type of race they have all won. Between $2 & $3.99 combine for the next best.
Alternatively, runners starting $16 or greater at their previous start go from second position to last place given the number of runners in this price range which start in each race of this type,
I chose the above race type for this explanation,
Open Maiden
1200 metres
37,500 Prize money
Track Conditions are Soft 7 or Heavy 8
as it is not yet, but soon to be, a qualified race for my purposes. There have been 38 races with a total of 370 runners. There are more than likely 4 races to go before it qualifies, I will follow those races with great interest.
Will you back every winner, the simple answer is NO! Is this the type of records you should keep? That is simply up to you. But you need to develop some sort of record keeping that gives you a better chance of winning. Sticking to the plan is they key to making judicious selections.
Variety is NOT the spice of life when you are on the punt. It is vegemite on toast every time when we want to back more winners.
Period 4 – Reach into your mind and recall and then record all the different bets types you make over the course of the punting day. Win, Place, Trifecta’s, Quadrella’s etc.,
Too Many Tickets
You must have worked out by now that I had a lot of mates, aquaintances and just members of the general public I sort of knew when I was in my gambling hey day. Another bloke that myself and my closes mate “sorta” knew was a bloke we had nick named Raffles. Raffles was not a punter who placed large bets, rather, he placed a large volume of bets. Raffles may have had 5 one dollar bets on almost every race in every State. Raffles had that many bets he had his own personal emu that followed him about. We heard all about Raffles big wins and as Raffles had one of the most annoying voices you had ever heard, we were glad that his big wins were few and far between.
It seems that every week there is a new sport to bet on or a new bet type to try out. You even have what in my opinion is the biggest “gamblers are mugs” product in the odds and evens bet. However, many gamblers are mugs and try all these new products, throw them away when they don’t make their fortune and then try something else. The punter that needs the most assistance but will never take advise is the punter who wants to make his fortune every bet. They have no rules, are not selective and would be better off following this piece of advice, your first rule shouldalways be “not to lose”.
Have you ever had a run of seconds and decided to become a place punter? Of course you have, then each horse bet upon runs fourth. I find myself happy but not delighted if I have a run of seconds. To me it means my selection methods are not far off. If you bet at a winning rate of 25% you will be a successful punter if you are selective and follow some bankroll management rules.
Horse racing is a chaos sport, the complexion of a race can change at any time. You cannot be right all the time, it is impossible. Get used to it, maintain your grace and don’t change you selections or your stake trying to win it back.
I can’t tell you what type of bet you should make. What I can tell you that taking a treble after missing the first leg of the quadrella is a bad idea. That is chasing your money. Second Rule, don’t chase. If you are a quadrella bettor be a quadrella bettor.
What type of bet types suit you betting personality will become clear to you when you make selective decisions. Tou then can recognise what you should punt on. Conduct some back testing when you start your record keepingre and check the early results. If you keep using the same well researched anf tested information, in the same way with the same bank roll management system, the results will come.
Be selective, be judicious and be successful.
Period 5 - Reach into your mind and recall and then record how you keep track of your bets.
Record Keeping
I know what you are thinking. Why? Becasue I am thinking the same thing, “this Zyrg bloke sounds like a broken record the way he he keeps banging on about keeping records”. But you cannot underestimate the importance of record keep. The most important record to keep and the record that will make go back to th top of this page and read it all again, is the RESULTS of all your punting.
If you want to be a winning punter YOU WILL KEEP RECORDS
If you want to continue being a winning punter YOU WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP RECORDS
If you want to increase your bank roll YOU WILL CONTINUE TOO AND CONDUCT ANALYSIS OF YOUR RECORDS
if we go back to the start of this blurb we are reminded that this 5S methodolgy is all about
CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
Your Corporate Bookmaker is obliged to send you a monthly record of your account activity and they carry this out like clock work, but how many of you have ever read it?
Keep your own records and start with a very simple method. Start with three colums. Use a computer and excel or just buy yourself and old-fashioned exercise book.
Don’t even worry about running totals at this stage, just record, hopefully with 3 lots of digits, on this form these details everytime you have a bet. Do this for seven punting days regardless whether the period is 7 days or 7 weeks. After the 7 punting days, tot up the columns.
Next, we are going to add a fourth column, a new one for the date.
Then, after another 7 recording periods, add another column with bet type. This is where some basic excel skills and a computer become important as you will need to start filtering, sorting and adding formulas.
The colums should keep increasing,
at which track the race was ran
the track condition
full placings
full dividends
anything you think is relevant
It is an important step when you start keeping your records, it is important that you continue to keep these records and it is important that you analyse and continue to develop your record keeping.
After you have become a winning punter you will want to keep these records so you can boast and prove to one and all that you are a successful investor on our equine friends.
You will will also need to maintain these records for when the inenvitable losing streak arrives. When that streak arrives, you can return to these records and see that what you have developed was successful and will be again. I think the current buzz word is variance. Bloody variance, why can’t people just say they are having a bad trot.
Implementing 5S
Too many Form Guides
Too many Experts
Too Much Information & No Record Keeping
Too Many Tickets
Record Keeping
Above we have a reminder of what we will be addressing here to unclutter our minds, unclutter our work space and send on the Super Highway to becoming a successful punter.
Too Many Form Guides
You should allow yourself to use two Form Guides, one paper guide and one electronic guide. Personally, I do not use a paper guide at all, mainly because I do not have access to one, but as I keep my own records, records that are now part of my form, I do need nor do I miss having a paper form guide. If I need to write something down I have my trusty exercie book.
So now you have two choice to make.
What will my choice of paper form guide be (should you need one)?
What electronic form guide will I choose?
My choice of form guide is on line and Free of Charge. One that is accurate to a high degree but has been known to have some errors. I can recognise the errors as I keep my own records as well but FYI, their main error is displaying 4yo & Up Maidens as Open Maidens in the form, even though they have correctly recorded and reported it in the Results.
The electronic form guide that I use is,
I have found it to be reliable, available most of the time and it has all the information you should ever need,
There are 2 other reasons that I find it the prefect form guide for me,
it does not have inane comments for each runner
it does not have tipsters of any type
It makes my selections completely mine. You need to make your selections completely yours.
Too many Experts
Now is also the time that we need to decide what type of race(s) that we are going to bet on and also what type of bet we are going to be placing in the future.
I chose Maidens. You can read how that decision was made here.
You need to specialise or you will continue to be like a modern day Raffles and without the old fashioned paper tickets to remind you how many bets you have placed before you know it you need a winner or your balance is a blob.
When making your decison on what type of races you will specialise in and which type of bets you will place remember I expect you to not only keep some records back to do a little bit of work and find some historical information. Little fish are sweet, pick one or two race types and go from there.
This is going to be easier for Saturday only punters so let’s look at there first.
I suppose that even for Professional Punters, horse racing is a form of entertainment at times while at most times it is a serious business. As stated, punting is one of the very few forms of entertainment where we are happy to pay more for particpating than we really should want to. Let’s stop that manner of thinking and get some bang (profit) for our bucks.
And that is how I view the expert tipsters that abound, as a form of entertainment. After all, I believe that is how many see themselves.
I know what I am going to punt on of a Saturday latest Friday night and will only make changes to the plan if scratchings come into play. I may not even have a bet if my selection has been scratched. When we are finshed this exercise I guess you will be the same.
Listen to the experts for the entertainment value. If they tip a horse you give no chance that’s fine, if they tip the one you like, take it as a pat on the back. If you listen to one you will listen to them all. Be steadfast with your methodology and don;t let anyone change your mind. Will you miss a winner or two by not listening to a “hot” tip? Sure you will but that will soon be forgotten. You will remember the winners you found by applying the 5S methodology and developing your punting “character” more.
Most racing these days is Bench Mark (BM) racing and I find the ratings accurate.
On most Saturdays there will be some or all of the following BM rated races at the Melbourne Metropoltan meeting. The most common of these races are advertised a BM78, BM84, BM94 and BM100 (or Open) races. Some races will till br advertised as this class even if the Number 1 has a lower individual BM rating than advertised. This in particular applies to BM100 races and 3yo BM races. Be aware.
Recap
So, following the 5S Lean Methodolgy, using S1 & S2 our mind should already be less cluttered. Our workspace and more importantly our minds are more clear by using 1 Form Guide (maybe 2) as the place from where we will gather our information.
We have decided that we will become the masters of our own destiny and not be swayed by the ideas and suggestions of others.
We are feeling better about ourselves and feeling better about our punting already. Now we are ready to make the important decisions, we are going to decide on what races to concentrate on and what bet types we use to invest on our selections.
Let us continue
Too Much Information & No Record Keeping
The above “slide” is a derivation of a slide I se when demostrating the factory floor before implementing 5S. S1 & S2 have not been applied to the “slide” but for our punting Lean implementation we can do that now. From the above we can remove any superfluous form guides and experts so it is now time to “Shine”.