Putting the Race Together - Example

Let’s put a race assessment together, From A to Z. I have done thousands of these so I may forget to explain something, if I do, drop a question in the Dischord thread on I will answer it there. There is also an email address on the bottom of each page of this site.

Most of this first Table is pretty much the basic stuff until we get to the right hand side.

Additionally, keep in mind I am a bit of a contrarian. I might write that some aspect is not important in one area and in another area say it is important for me to look at. A perfect example is where I say one of the reasons I chose maidens as you can put a line through a few runners immediately, however when doing the actual assessments it is important to assess every runner. Feel free to point out my contrariness if you have a query.

No Recent Form Horse Trainer Jockey Barr. Date of Last Start Days Since Last Start A ZRR Mgn.
1 BOLD JESTER (NZ) Patrick Payne Billy Egan 4 18-Jun-26 0
2 6x46 DIAMOND MILA Damien Walkley Jason Maskiell 9 12-Jun-26 6 E 0.26 1.16
3 58x70x8x GHAZI (NZ) Logan McGill Brad Rawiller 12 25-Mar-26 85
4 7 GOSTUMPYGO Cliff Murray Ms Sheridan Clarke 3 17-May-26 32 D 0.48 15.77
5 0 MONOLITHIC Enver Jusufovic Lachlan Neindorf 1 22-May-26 27 C 0.57 9.36
6 6747x ROYAL STORM Lyn Tolson & Leonie Proctor Luke Cartwright (a0/51kg) 6 08-Nov-25 222 E 0.12 3.99
7 0x40680x THE TORONADO KID Chris Calthorpe Luke Nolen 5 20-Feb-26 118 4+ 0.41 8.06
8 23x TOO TOUGH Cindy Alderson Logan Bates (a0/52kg) 13 28-Nov-25 202 D 0.50 2.05
9 3 VIPERSTRIKE Mathew Smerdon Will Gordon 7 01-Jun-26 17 D 0.42 2.00
10 850x664 KARUMBA GIRL Dale Short Ms Jackie Beriman 2 12-Jun-26 6 0.16 2.31
11 6x MERITATEN Ben O'Farrell Jason Webb 8 29-Mar-26 81 F 0.01 8.56
12 6068x86785 MISS GOSSIP GIRL Steven Noble Ms Samantha Noble 10 09-Jun-26 9 B 0.58 6.00
13 57 BOURNE LEGACY Anthony & Sam Freedman Daniel Stackhouse 11 04-Jun-26 14
0.00

Days Since Last Start - comes into play during final deliberations. I record it here as I am looking at that data to complete the next 3 columns. This column will only be blank for first starters.

A & ZRR

A - this column has little relevance to the over all ratings. If I am deciding my selection between 2 runners with a similar or same final ZZR I may use this figure. Different maiden race types are stronger than others yet may have the same ZRR. In this instance the lower the letter (A is best) the better the rating. For the this to come into play, the margin must be similar. A better example will be pointed out later.

ZRR - This is measure of the strength of the last race the runners contested. The higher the number the better. The ZZR’s are calculated by each runners perfromance in the categories,

SP last start, beaten margin last start & prize money last start. I weight these 3 categories differently and then add them to get the final ZRR.

‍ And the figure 0.00 at the bottom of the table? This will be the figure for the ZRR once we get a bit further along the process.

Other - You will notice that 4 boxes are empty in the column labelled A

Runner number 1 is a first starter

Runner number 3 has not competed in a ratable race at its last 3 starts

Runner number 10 has been rated on its start 2 back, I do use a letter for F&M nor 4+ maidens. Experience tells me that in the majority these types are naturally weaker than 3yo, 3yo F and Open maidens.

I started adding these data entries while I was checking that my Form Guide was accurate. It is for the vast majority of the time however, on a few occassions, F&M and 4yo & Up maidens may be shown in the guide as just Maidens. This also happens with the occassional 3yo maiden.

It is important to my overall ratings that I have the correct type of maiden when entering data.

An example of an incorrect entry in the form guide. The event won by Racey Casey was actually a race for 4yo & Up maidens and is the last start for the N8 in the example race.

Below is table and I suppose it would be similar to that of most Tables that use the excel format,

Today's Race Yesterday's Race
Age Sex Prep Stage Race Type Distance Starting Pr. Beaten By Prize Money
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

the different details associated with each runner are entered in the yellow columns and the resulting values, from the calculations in an another area are displayed in the green columns. The Headings show the different criteria I mentioned on the thread the other day, they are broken into subsets,

Age 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8+
Sex F COLT M H G
Prep FS FU 2 Other
Type FS 2M 2F 3M 3F 4+ F&M OM PIC OBM MM MS LG
Dist. FS 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1800 2022 2400 2500
SP FS Odds On $2 range $3 range $4 range $5 - $7.50 $8 - $10 $11 - $15 $16 +
LM FS 0.1- 0.99 1.01-1.99 2 - 2.99 3 - 3.99 4 - 4.99 5 +
PM FS 20 - 26k 27 - 40k 40 - 59k 60 - 75k 80 - 170K 175 - 220k 225k +

In the row Type, the last 4 cells are,

OBM - Other BM (Bench Mark race)

MM - Metro Mid week

MS - Metro Saturday

LG - Listed or Group

Let’s enter some data and I will have an updated version of the second table and a further table from one of the criteria from the above table.

With the data entered for all runners, Table 2 now looks like this. Note, the former green cells turn blue as soon as the entry becomes less than 19%. They remain green when 19% or above.

The dat entered is not the actual data but a figure I use that matches the headings in the criteria, this to make the excel formulae easier to work with. For example, in the Beaten By colums, any runner beaten by more than 5 lengths will have a 5 in this column regard of whther it was beaten by 5 lengths ot beaten by 40 lengths.

The below is still in saddle cloth order.

Today's Race Yesterday's Race
Age Sex Prep Stage Race Type Distance Starting Pr. Beaten By Prize Money
3 8% G 8% FS 6% FS 6% FS 6% FS 6% FS 6% FS 6%
4 7% G 8% O 7% OM 8% 1000 3% $5.00 14% 5.00 6% 20 6%
4 7% G 8% FU 13% OM 8% 1600 7% $16.00 3% 5.00 6% 20 6%
4 7% G 8% 2 4% OM 8% 1000 3% $16.00 3% 5.00 6% 38 6%
5 8% G 8% 2 4% OM 8% 1300 13% $9.00 7% 5.00 6% 27 8%
3 8% G 8% FU 13% OM 8% 1300 13% $11.00 7% 3.00 9% 27 8%
4 7% G 8% FU 13% 4+ 7% 1400 16% $16.00 3% 5.00 6% 27 8%
4 7% G 8% FU 13% OM 8% 1400 16% $3.00 33% 2.00 8% 38 6%
4 7% G 8% 2 4% OM 8% 1100 7% $11.00 7% 2.00 8% 27 8%
4 7% M 6% O 7% OM 8% 1200 8% $11.00 7% 2.00 8% 20 6%
4 7% M 6% FU 13% OM 8% 1300 13% $16.00 3% 5.00 6% 27 8%
4 7% M 6% O 7% OM 8% 1200 8% $16.00 3% 5.00 6% 27 8%
2 22% G 8% O 7% OM 8% 1200 8% $16.00 3% 5.00 6% 27 8%

A couple of green cells are here and they indicate a “standout“ value for that criteria. This immediately says to me that 2yo’s have a good record in this type of race and that horses that had a SP in the $3 range at their previous appearance do as well. I think we can all realise the next column to the right of the above table will be the TOTAL column.

I probably shoud have mentioned this earlier but the criteria I am using for this race is All Open Maidens over 1200m competed for on a Heavy 9 or Heavy 10 rated track. 52 races, 496 starters, one of the smaller samples I have but the most accurate for today.

The criteria from those 52 races is in the Table below and firstly converted to match the Field Size today and then it calculates Today’s “Real“ percentage chance today per runner.

Totals Losing Mgn. FS 0.1 1 2 3 4 5 Criteria Value
100% Win % per race 13% 8% 19% 6% 10% 10% 35% Percentage of winners from this Race type
9.56 Avge. Runners 1.77 0.63 0.67 0.54 0.81 0.67 4.46 Average number of runners from this type of race
Real Win % 8% 12% 29% 11% 12% 14% 8% “Real” winning % from this type of race
13.03 Avge/Todays Filed 2.41 0.86 0.92 0.73 1.10 0.92 6.08 Average runners from this type of race converted to Today’s Field Size
Strs Todays Fld 1 0 0 3 1 0 8 Today's Field Size per criteria value
% per Criteria Today 6% 0% 0% 24% 9% 0% 46% Today's "real" winning % per criteria
Allot Per Runner Today 6% 0% 0% 8% 9% 0% 6% Todays "real" winning % per runner

Our Table 1, now Table 1a, looks like this. I now have an idea of what order I MAYBE suggesting for selections and investments.

No Recent Form Horse Trainer Jockey Barr. Date of Last Start Days Since Last Start A ZRR Mgn.
8 23x TOO TOUGH Cindy Alderson Logan Bates (a0/52kg) 13 28-Nov-25 D 0.50 2.05
6 6747x ROYAL STORM Lyn Tolson & Leonie Proctor Luke Cartwright (a0/51kg) 6 08-Nov-25 E 0.12 3.99
13 57 BOURNE LEGACY Anthony & Sam Freedman Daniel Stackhouse 11 04-Jun-26
7 0x40680x THE TORONADO KID Chris Calthorpe Luke Nolen 5 20-Feb-26 4+ 0.41 8.06
11 6x MERITATEN Ben O'Farrell Jason Webb 8 29-Mar-26 F 0.01 8.56
5 0 MONOLITHIC Enver Jusufovic Lachlan Neindorf 1 22-May-26 C 0.57 9.36
2 6x46 DIAMOND MILA Damien Walkley Jason Maskiell 9 12-Jun-26 E 0.26 1.16
3 58x70x8x GHAZI (NZ) Logan McGill Brad Rawiller 12 25-Mar-26
9 3 VIPERSTRIKE Mathew Smerdon Will Gordon 7 01-Jun-26 D 0.42 2.00
10 850x664 KARUMBA GIRL Dale Short Ms Jackie Beriman 2 12-Jun-26 0.16 2.31
12 6068x86785 MISS GOSSIP GIRL Steven Noble Ms Samantha Noble 10 09-Jun-26 B 0.58 6.00
1 BOLD JESTER (NZ) Patrick Payne Billy Egan 4 18-Jun-26
4 7 GOSTUMPYGO Cliff Murray Ms Sheridan Clarke 3 17-May-26 D 0.48 15.77
0.00

I should note here that the ZRR figure after entering the data is 0.00, meaning this is a weak form race but all runners are equally poor. This doesn’t mean it is a non betting race although caution is recommended. 0.00 is not unusual but will mainly appear in secondary meetings. It is unusual for a Thursday race meeting but we are in winter.

Factor
TAB No. Horse Criteria Total 20 Margin My SP Invest to Collect $100
8 TOO TOUGH 1.00 20.1 0.0 $1.50 $66.70
6 ROYAL STORM 0.75 15.0 5.0 $11.00 $9.10
13 BOURNE LEGACY 0.70 14.0 6.1 $19.30 $5.20
7 THE TORONADO KID 0.69 13.9 6.2 $19.30 $5.20
11 MERITATEN 0.65 13.0 7.1 $30.80 $3.30
5 MONOLITHIC 0.62 12.4 7.7 $38.50 $2.60
2 DIAMOND MILA 0.60 12.0 8.1 $51.30 $2.00
3 GHAZI (NZ) 0.59 11.7 8.3 $51.30 $2.00
9 VIPERSTRIKE 0.58 11.6 8.4 $51.30 $2.00
10 KARUMBA GIRL 0.58 11.5 8.5 $51.30 $2.00
12 MISS GOSSIP GIRL 0.53 10.7 9.4
1 BOLD JESTER (NZ) 0.50 10.0 10.1
4 GOSTUMPYGO 0.46 9.2 10.9
Total Invest $100.10

In the above Table we have almost completed the Tissue Prices but there is one more step I employ to get my Tissue Prices.

You will see a Cell named Factor and the column next to it named Margin. I adjust the Factor number, currently 20, so that the highest number in Margin, the bottom rated runner will be 9.5. The figure 9.5 is a part of the calculations that allows my Tissue Prices to bet set to 100%. I have not included the columns containing the calculations but they can be found here.

Factor
TAB No. Horse Criteria Total 17.5 Margin My SP Invest to Collect $100
8 TOO TOUGH 1.00 20.1 0.0 $1.80 $55.60
6 ROYAL STORM 0.75 15.0 4.4 $8.60 $11.70
13 BOURNE LEGACY 0.70 14.0 5.3 $16.40 $6.10
7 THE TORONADO KID 0.69 13.9 5.4 $16.40 $6.10
11 MERITATEN 0.65 13.0 6.2 $22.50 $4.50
5 MONOLITHIC 0.62 12.4 6.7 $30.00 $3.40
2 DIAMOND MILA 0.60 12.0 7.1 $36.00 $2.80
3 GHAZI (NZ) 0.59 11.7 7.3 $45.00 $2.30
9 VIPERSTRIKE 0.58 11.6 7.4 $45.00 $2.30
10 KARUMBA GIRL 0.58 11.5 7.5 $45.00 $2.30
12 MISS GOSSIP GIRL 0.53 10.7 8.2
1 BOLD JESTER (NZ) 0.50 10.0 8.8
4 GOSTUMPYGO 0.46 9.2 9.5
Total Invest $97.10

I have now adjusted the Factor number to 17.50. The result of doing this has given us a largest Margin number of 9.5 and the Tissues Price are now set.

Secondary Date

Now we have our Tissue Price, I would normally add in the actual prices on offer by betting providers. I do not get fazed by them id they are totally different to my prices.

What I do is look at my Secondary Data to see if there are reasons behind the difference. Note: If there is abig difference in prices, experience has shown me there are normally two main reasons,

There is a runner on debut that is short and my records show that this is not a good race for those on debut.

The market has excused a bad previous performance by a runner and I have not. As a standard practice. I use the last start for each runners initial assessment.

Box 'n' Whiskers
Maximum Q3 Median Q1 Minimum
$31.00 $6.63 $3.70 $2.58 $1.22
TAB No. Horse My SP Invest to Collect $100 Operator Prices
8 TOO TOUGH $1.80 $55.60
6 ROYAL STORM $8.60 $11.70
13 BOURNE LEGACY $16.40 $6.10
7 THE TORONADO KID $16.40 $6.10
11 MERITATEN $22.50 $4.50
5 MONOLITHIC $30.00 $3.40

FYI, the colour schemes I am using here ae not the color schemes I use, I am just trying to make the points I am discussing stand out. Here I am discussing Historical Prices for this type of race and in this instance I am using my favorite statistic tool, the Box ‘n’ Whisker Chart for SP’s. Have a look at the Red Cells with white font.

For those unfamiliar with box ‘n’ whiskers, this one indicates the breakdown of the previous 52 races SP’s into a group of 4.

Between Quartile 3 (Q3) & Quartile 1 (Q1) we have the prices for the middle 50% of the 52 races, there 26 races. In the case above,

26 winners were priced between $6.63 & $2.58. This is the area that I look at most, the largest group, the box.

13 winners were priced greater than $6.63 and the highest priced winner was $31, whisker 1

13 winners were priced under $2.58 and the shortest priced winner started at $1.22, whisker 2

I do not use these religously to make a decision but I always look at them. I use them mostly if I am having a quadrella, do not have a clear winner and I will take the runners in the “box” before the first leg of said quaddy.

Quartiles

If we have the numbers 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 the Median value if 4, the value in the middle.

If we have the numbers 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 the Median value is 4.5. As there are 2 numbers in the middle of this row of numbers, 4 & 5, we ad those 2 number and this equals 9 and then divide the 9 by 2 equalling 4.5. =(4+5)/2

Quartile 1 (Q1) is the 25% group of numbers at the lower end of the group of numbers (2.5 in the numbers 1 - 7)

Quartile 3 (Q3) is the 25% group of numbers at the higher end of the group of numbers (5.5 in the number 1 - 7)

Excel Formula, in the order that is best to use and to also find the highest and lowest numbers,

=MAX(array of cells to measure)

=QUARTILE(array of cells to measure,3)

=MEDIAN(array of cells to measure)

=QUARTILE(array of cells to measure,1)

=MIN(array of cells to measure)

TAB No. Horse Big 3 Past Perform. Jockey Trainer Barrier Time
8 TOO TOUGH 0.47 (2.95) 13
6 ROYAL STORM 0.24 2.79 6
13 BOURNE LEGACY 0.17 0.00 X X 11
7 THE TORONADO KID 0.17 3.96 5
11 MERITATEN 0.17 8.46 8
5 MONOLITHIC 0.21 3.66 1
2 DIAMOND MILA 0.26 (1.44) 9
3 GHAZI (NZ) 0.15 0.00 12
9 VIPERSTRIKE 0.23 (2.20) X 7
10 KARUMBA GIRL 0.21 0.71 2
12 MISS GOSSIP GIRL 0.17 0.20 10
1 BOLD JESTER (NZ) 0.17 0.00 X X 4
4 GOSTUMPYGO 0.15 10.97 3

Jockeys & Trainers - I have mentioned this before that the Top 12 trainers train 30% of the maiden winners. The figure is only slightly less for the Top 12 jockeys.

So, using VLOOKUP, I automatically get an “X” for the Top 12 in the columns headed, guess what, Jockey & Trainer. So a runner like Bold Jester in the Table above, needs a second look, maybe not as a winning chance but maybe for place getter in Trifecta’s and First Fours.

My Trainer & Jockey records are recorded by most wins (not Strike Rate) by Maiden Type, Open Maiden Distance, Jockey/Trainer and by Race Track. Click on either Trainers or Jockeys to access those records.

The final column above headed Time does not come into play too much at this time of year. I started this entire stat keeping obsession using times as the first data point. I have a calculation that gives an accurate time rating, from 1000m to 1600m, regardless of the track, distance or track conditions. If there is a qualifier, an X would appear in this column. It also uses VLOOKUP.

Barrier position is subjective. I am not going to tell anyone how to treat barriers, but FWIW,

Barr. Used Wins %
14 1 0 0%
13 4 0 0%
12 12 1 8%
11 28 1 4%
10 35 1 3%
9 40 9 23%
8 41 3 7%
7 44 3 7%
6 44 2 5%
5 44 4 9%
4 44 6 14%
3 44 5 11%
2 44 5 11%
1 44 4 9%

These are the results per barrier for the 1200m at Moe. Open maidens only. All track conditions. One day I will get around to adding all maiden types to this table. For mine barrierss 1 - 5 are key while barrier 9 is the most successful. You can decide whether the 9 is the most successful or an outlier.

Days Since Last Start
Top 3 intervals (days)
1 - 14 15 - 21 120 - 210
Number of Races won 8 15 8 of 40
Horse TAB No. DSLS
TOO TOUGH 8 202
ROYAL STORM 6 222
BOURNE LEGACY 13 14
THE TORONADO KID 7 118
MERITATEN 11 81
MONOLITHIC 5 27
DIAMOND MILA 2 6
GHAZI (NZ) 3 85
VIPERSTRIKE 9 17
KARUMBA GIRL 10 6
MISS GOSSIP GIRL 12 9
BOLD JESTER (NZ) 1 0
GOSTUMPYGO 4 32

One often ignored statistic, a secondary stat for me, is the time between starts for runners. It was ignored by me for a long time. It was either first start, first up, second or other which is still my primary stat. list for the preparation stage.

The days between runs is still a secondary stat. to me but I find it increasingly useful. especially for runners returning from a spell.

The question posed by this stat for this race would be,

Toronado Storm, is 2 days outside the range considered or not.

Note: There are consisent ranges across many race types at different tracks and once again I look towards finding the anomolies.

and Finally…

Odds on Offer Odds On $2 - $2.90 $3 - $3.90 $4 - $4.90 $5 - $7.5 $8 - $10 $11 - $15 $16 plus
Races Runners "Real" Winning SP's
All 1200 760 7827 $1.97 $2.60 $4.19 $5.00 $7.75 $10.42 $16.39 $52.13
Track (Moe All 1200) 44 469 $1.33 $2.55 $2.58 $4.75 $23.50 $24.00 $23.00 $48.40
TC (H9/10), All 1200) 52 496 $2.43 $2.33 $3.00 $11.00 $7.00 $14.50 $33.00 $39.17
Field Size (All 1200) - 13 50 650 $4.00 $2.56 $3.25 $4.00 $5.54 $18.00 $18.75 $91.00

I have used the same “real” calcuation here as for everywhere else on this page,

Total Number of Winner at the Odds on Offer divided by the total Races or Strike Rate.

That figure is then divided by the Average number of runners that had an SP of the Odds on Offer.

In the above Table, runners that won in the Odds On range numbered 6 or =6/44 or 14%.

Over those 44 races, only 8 runners started in the Odds On range or 0.18 runners per race started odds on.

Therefore horses that started in the Odds On range won 75% of the races they contested.

75% converted to decimal odds = 1/(1×0.75) = $1.33

Investing a fixed amount of $100 on all 8 runners that started at Odds On would have netted a $952 return for the $800 investment a 19% ROI.

Summing Up

So, in a nut shell, 85% of my work is done when I have entered the historical data from each runners last run. After that it is looking for positives from the supporting data.

I think I have watched 3 trials/jumpouts in my life.

I occassionally watch replays, not often.

  • A runner that storms home will storm home over whatever distance, very few “stormers” win next start

  • A runner that gets into trouble one start, will get into trouble at subsequent starts, very few “met trouble” runners win at their next start.

  • I do not care for following horses that “miss the kick”. Most “miss the kick” runners miss the kick at subsequent starts. These runners will most likely feature in your “stormers” as well.

  • I don’t consider that a runners jockey is under instructions “not to try”. I don’t worry over conspiracy theory’s.

  • I do believe that punters should avoid unecessay noise

  • I do believe that punters should specialise

  • I do believe that punters should standardise

  • I do believe that punters should sustain what they have found to be succesful. Today they call it “variance”. No fancy Namcy names required. You will have a losing trot, accept it and reflect, remove the noise that has crept in, go back to the races you have specialised, and

  • Standardise you bets again, if you have been a successful win better, stick with being a win better.