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Lean Methodology, Efficiency, Teamwork & Communication

Seymour and 5 maidens to find a winner for today. There has been a couple of important withdrawls and now that we have worked around them I have a high degree of confidence, particulary in Race 4.

Form A to Zyrg

We specialise in Maiden races, races that are restricted to horses that have never won a race. Some punters hate them. We LOVE them, demonstrating that, time after time, that the majority of winners in Maiden races can be found, with a bit of effort.

It’s all in the data and we keep and analyse this data for you. Over 5 years of Maiden data. More than 6,000 races and 60,000 runners have their data stored in our vault. Our full story can be found here.

We have the data broken down by race type, by distance, by track, by age, by month, by day and by track condition. Whatever is happening we have it covered.

Details regarding how a certain type of Maiden qualifies as a betting race can be found here.

We practice Lean Methodology. Learn about Lean Punting here.

Find out more about each table we provide to help wth your selections by clicking the title above each table.

QUICK RUN THROUGH

TABLE 1 - FORM A to I

The Stables - The Price Given is based on this Stable winning % over the previous 12 months.

Check out the Bank Roll page for more details.

Lev

Lean Evaluation calculated prices for the Race. The “invest Amount“ is set to collect $30. If you are a $100 punter, the calculation for each horse is 100/Price Wanted. Prices set to 100%

Full descriptions and explanation can be found here.

Seymour, 3rd February 2026

Race 1, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo, 1300m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A 6 $4.60
B 6 $4.20
C 11 $4.50
D 12 $4.00
E $4.70
F 7 $4.30
G 7 $3.60
H 13 $4.80
I 7 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

I can inform you that I like the walking stick, N7. A nice solid run at Wang. in a slightly weaker race. Much the same deal in its previous race as well. Consistency to pay dividends today. The hardest to beat, for mine, is the N13, coming out of the same race. Was better 2 starts back. N12 to fill the placings with N8 the other hope. Left the fave right out, has nice form if interested.

7 - 13 - 12 - 8

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
7 $2.80 $10.80
13 $7.10 $4.30
8 $8.30 $3.70
12 $10.10 $3.00
10 $11.90 $2.60
6 $11.90 $2.60
Total $27.00
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 7,12
Exacta 7 8,12,13
Trifecta 7,13 7,8,12,13 7,8,10,12,13,

Seymour, 3rd February, 2026

Race 2, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 1200m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A $4.60
B $4.20
C 9 $4.50
D $4.00
E $4.70
F 10 $4.30
G 7 $3.60
H $4.80
I 7 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

Seymour race 2 throws up a tricky contest and like race 1, ir has a stack of chances. I have ended up plonking for the N12 in this one. Going back to its debut in a strong race which has produced good winners. I have it to beat thee N10, its debut was good as well. The N’s 4, 8 & 9 to follow in the wake of those 2. I seem to be a bit shy of faves today.

12 - 10 - 8 - 9

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
10 $3.30 $9.10
8 $5.10 $5.90
9 $6.10 $5.00
4 $8.30 $3.70
12 $9.30 $3.30
7 $19.60 $1.60
Total $28.60
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 8,10
Exacta 10 4,8,9,12
Trifecta 8,9,10 4,8,9,10,12 4,8,9,10,12

Seymour, 3rd February 2026

Race 3, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 1429m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A $4.60
B $4.20
C 1 $4.50
D $4.00
E $4.70
F 8 $4.30
G 1 $3.60
H 9 $4.80
I 4 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

Top selection did not get a start so where to go? Going rough in this now where I am selecting N6. Debuted with a nice run but went like a busted second up. Tipping huge improvement. Then the N8, N4 and then the N1.

6 - 8 - 4 - 1

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
8 $2.30 $13.10
4 $4.20 $7.20
5 $7.20 $4.20
1 $11.40 $2.70
6 $28.50 $1.10
9
Total $28.30
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 4,8
Exacta 8 1,4,5
Trifecta 4,5,8 4,5,8 1,4,5,6,8

Seymour, 3rd February 2026

Race 4, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 1429m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A $4.60
B $4.20
C 8 $4.50
D 3 $4.00
E $4.70
F 3 $4.30
G 6 $3.60
H 2 $4.80
I 2 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

With the N7 in R4, the Miss Maranda form is too hard to ignore. Has drawn perfectly as well. M Dee will jump it straight to the front and lead all the way. N3 will be getting home hard, first up here. The N2 to fill the main placings and a shekel horse, N5, after those. Not sure why.

7 - 3 - 2 - 5

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
3 $2.00 $15.00
2 $7.10 $4.30
5 $11.70 $2.60
7 $12.50 $2.40
6 $18.10 $1.70
8 $18.10 $1.70
Total $27.70
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 3,7
Exacta 7 2,3
Trifecta 2,7 2,3,5,7 2,3,5,6,7,8

Seymour, 3rd February 2026

Race 5, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 2246m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A $4.60
B $4.20
C 1 $4.50
D $4.00
E $4.70
F 4 $4.30
G $3.60
H $4.80
I 4 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

Sounds like a character from Harry Potter and tipping it maybe my own little fantasy, however, the N4 it is. Powerball like selection after that and listening to Lev all the way here,

4 - 3 - 13 - 1

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
4 $2.30 $13.10
3 $4.90 $6.20
13 $10.10 $3.00
1 $12.90 $2.40
6 $16.60 $1.90
2 $21.20 $1.50
Total $28.10
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 3,4
Exacta 3 4
Trifecta 3,4 3,4,13 1,3,4,6,13

Saturday Selections

Not many excite me today, try these,

Caulfield Race 5 Number 10, very each way, 1 x 4 units

Morphetville Race 1 Number 10

Morphetville Race 5 Number 12, quite keen here.

Non competitive Racing

Is it less expensive to keep a horse in training than to retire it?

I ask this question as the amount of distance maidens that are contested in Victoria borders on the ridiculous. I would also go as far as this continued process of propping up horses (and connections) that will never win one race let alone go on to better things could bring a charge of bring disrepute to the industry.

The Prize Money allocated to these races could well be better utilised but first some facts.

The horse I have looked at for this exercise has had 50 starts for zero, nil, zilch wins.  It has been placed second on 6 occasions and placed third in a further 10 races. Let’s call him Clive. Clive is a 7 year old gelding.

Clive has won, with bonuses, 149,418 AUD in prize money. Yes, a non winner has won just shy of 150,000 AUD.

Clive had 17 starts in 2025 and ran second 5 times with two thirds as well a number of fourths and fifth and among his best performances.

Clive generally races near the lead but on occasions gets out the back. When he leads he generally gets bloused on the post and when ridden “quieter” storms home to just miss.

Clive, and he has a few mates in these distance maidens, wants to win but I think those who look after him, don’t want to win. Why would they?

And I do not blame the connections, they are playing the game that has been offered to them.

If Clive wins a race he will never win again and the gravy train will come to an end. There are not enough BM 56’s to make money running a placing every second or third start. At the BM52 level the prize money is probably insufficient to stay in the black.

The prize money for maidens is paid down to 10th placing. Fourth gets $1,600 AUD

These races are bringing disrepute to the racing game.

BTW, Clive trialed recently in anticipation of another return to the race track. Guess where Clive finished in the trial? Yes, second.

And in a final update, Clive returns to competitive racing on Sunday.

 

Confirmation Bias

One of the biggest traps that any punter can fall into is having and punting based on, mostly unconscious, Confirmation Bias and by Dog it’s difficult to shake. We can go to the interweb and find out the real definition and it is,

“Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values. People display this bias when they select information that supports their views, ignoring contrary information, or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes”.

On most Saturdays, on X and other social media forums you will see racing’s biggest form of confirmation bias and it is nasty. The punter who thinks every selection he makes will win and when it does not, it is time to turn on the jockey.

During winter it will be the avid (feral) footy fan who reckons every ref/umpire call went against their team.

 

But the most over rated, over spruiked and downright incorrect piece of confirmation bias is the the roughie wins in small fields. Have a listen to your radio or television presenter next time a roughie wins in a small field, they will spruik this without fail.

Because it actually happens so rarely, people remember being told it and then waste their punting dough backing the hessian in the next few small fields they encounter.

I only have data on Maiden races but I am sure other classes in horse racing would follow similar trends (maybe my own confirmation bias) so here is some data to chew on.

 

Since March 2020, I have records for 308 races where there have been between 4 and 7 runners.

Of those 308 races, there has been 28 races (9%) where the winner has paid $11.00 or longer. Now that would be a good stat if there had of been only the 1 starter that started $11.00 or longer. However, of the 2042 runners that contested the 308 races, 929 or 45% of them had a SP of $11 or greater,

Now, of those 28 winners,

3 winners were the longest priced runners, they were priced at $16, $16 & $17

8 winners were the second longest priced runner in the race

9 winners were the third longest priced runner in the race

7 winners were the fourth longest priced runner in the race

1 winner was the fifth longest priced runner in the race, this runner was actually the second favourite.

 

So, next time you hear someone tell you to back the burlap sack in a field containing only a few runners you can now confirm that this is not true, it is incorrect, total hogwash.

 

Now excuse me while I go and read my horoscope.

More on Confirmation Bias on the punt.

 

Racing Coverage

BRING BACK THE HESSIAN SACK

The coverage of horse racing is in a very sad state. The name of the sport gives it away, the first word is horse, yet the horse(s) is/are the forgotten participants except for the more than casual punter for whom the coverage gives little. Or too much superfluous information.

 

I thought the coverage may improve once we got over Cup week, but alas, no. I follow the country racing and the coverage of Dunkeld last Saturday may well have been promoted as “Olivia’s Big Day Out”.

 

I am going to assume for this rant that people may watch the actual races on their mobile device. I doubt many people watch the parade and the lead up to a race on their ‘phone. If they do, they may have just found one reason their punting account balance keeps declining.

 

Most serious punters would watch the races on some large screen television or projected screen. The size of some televisions scares me.

 

Most money is on the first four horses in the market, yet in the parade ring, those four runners are gIven as much time as No.18, Ihavenohope, that is paying $201 on fixed odds. Why don’t we have all horses covered as is, but have a Picture in Picture, during the entire parade, of the three or four most favoured runners? Put the PIPs across the top of the screen at the bottom of the screen or down the side, I do not care just keep vision of these runners on the screen until they get to the barriers. They are the first four favorites for a reason, weight of money, that is the weight of the punters money and therefore the four horses that the weight of punters wish to observe.

 

Next, behind the barriers and this applies more to country tracks than to metropolitan courses, but, how hard is to put a camera(s) behind the barriers at all tracks? I would assume that even hiring some scaffolding for the day would be cost effective. There are not than many starting positions at most country tracks.

 

Even the race callers would love this. How many times do you hear a caller say that they cannot see what is happening behind (or in) the barriers? Plenty. And here is a thought, why not have this new cameraman wired up so they can communicate with the caller and tell him/her what is going on. Maybe we can find camerapeople who have some presentation skills and they could even be put to air telling the punters what they can see.

 

Still with country racing and especially at this time of year when we visit many of the once or twice of year courses. Personally, I would take the machete to the number of race tracks in Victoria but as we are currently stuck with them, let’s do something about the coverage. That is when there is coverage. Racing.com cannot seem to cope with 4 meetings of a Saturday so one of the provincial/country meetings gets zero coverage.

It is television and most punters can see. We don’t need a thousand presenters. More races and less talking is what I want.

 

Even some of the oft used courses have a load of trees inside the course, the caller cannot see the runners, the viewer/punter cannot see the horses and the chyron that supposedly tracks the horses place in the running is a conversation of its own.

 

Surely in this day and age there is a qualified, professional drone operator who could follow the race from a reasonable height? Is this another of the “insurance” risks that race clubs face? Or is it a fear of  “in play” Betfair traders?

 

Don’t get me started on “lightening in the area”.

 

Even if it is not a drone is it possible to string some wires along the back straight and have some “spider cam” action. Keep the poles and remove the wires if this creates a hazard (struck by lightening!) at other times.

Another solution could be one of those aforementioned scaffolds erected, with camera person in place, along the back of the track, either inside or outside the track.

 

But no, just leave it as it is and employ another talking head.

The latest directors fancy seems to be showing the runners from behind, from Flemington to Dunkeld to everywhere in between. This pointless if we cannot see the colors. Can someone explain to the director that the reason jockeys wear different colored silks is for identification. Lookimg at the jockey’s arse helps little with this.

 

Now, after the race has been run and won.

 

Why do we need to see a shed load of replays from artsy, fartsy angles, after the race, when,

 

  • We are waiting for the numbers to be announced/shown

  • We are waiting for the result of a photo finish, (here’s an idea, show a replay and freeze frame of the actual finish of the placing in question).

  • Display the totes as soon as possible, (8 minutes it took the other day).

  • Put the totes on the screen and not in that interminable ribbon at the bottom.

  • All that is needed is one tote and your selected operators Fixed price.

  • If they continue with the ribbon, put the First Four divvy before the Duets. I have never known anyone who bets in Duets.  

I need someone to explain to me the point of having a chyron running at the bottom of the screen that supposedly tells you the horses position in running? Why do we need all the other superfluous information on the screen like how many metres they have gone etc.,

 

The broadcaster should be teaching new punters about the colours of the silks that the jockeys are wearing rather than using a highly inaccurate chyron. The chyron can go an entire race without once displaying the correct order. Pointless and distracting.

 

The visual assumes the punters DO not know the colors, yet then confuse the watcher with an incorrect display.

 

The caller assumes the punter DO NOT know the colors as they will tell all and sundry that one jockey is wearing a black cap to distinguish it from another wearing a red cap. Most times they do not tell the viewers the actual silk colors the different caps are differentiating.

 

And finally for this rant, can the Race Clubs, Broadcaster and Stewards get together and cover up all the distance markers that are not in use for that days racing? I watched a race the other day that went past 4 different 1600m markers and 3 different 1400m markers, etc. Bring back the hessian sack.  

 

I have stopped listening to the wireless. Beyond redemption.