Lean Methodology, Efficiency, Teamwork & Communication

Bairnsdale and Geelong

Form A to Zyrg

We specialise in Maiden races, races that are restricted to horses that have never won a race. Some punters hate them. We LOVE them, demonstrating that, time after time, that the majority of winners in Maiden races can be found, with a bit of effort.

It’s all in the data and we keep and analyse this data for you. Over 5 years of Maiden data. More than 6,000 races and 60,000 runners have their data stored in our vault. Our full story can be found here.

We have the data broken down by race type, by distance, by track, by age, by month, by day and by track condition. Whatever is happening we have it covered.

Details regarding how a certain type of Maiden qualifies as a betting race can be found here.

We practice Lean Methodology. Learn about Lean Punting here.

Find out more about each table we provide to help wth your selections by clicking the title above each table.

QUICK RUN THROUGH

TABLE 1 - FORM A to I

The Stables - The Price Given is based on this Stable winning % over the previous 12 months.

Check out the Bank Roll page for more details.

Lev

Lean Evaluation calculated prices for the Race. The “invest Amount“ is set to collect $30. If you are a $100 punter, the calculation for each horse is 100/Price Wanted. Prices set to 100%

Full descriptions and explanation can be found here.

Bairnsdale, 22nd March 2026

Race 1, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 1600m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A $4.60
B $4.20
C 8 $4.50
D 8 $4.00
E $4.70
F 8 $4.30
G 3 $3.60
H $4.80
I 8 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

Race 1 and the first of a couple of shorties should win this. The N8 at a 1.36 is value if you are game. I have it 1.30. N9 for second a blind Bambi after that.

8 - 9 - 3 - 5

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
8 $1.30 $23.10
9 $6.90 $4.40
3
5
4
6
Total $27.50
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 8,9
Exacta 8 9
Trifecta 8 3,9 3,9
Last Handful - Bairnsdale, Open Mdn, 1600m Prep Race Type Distance SP
23-Mar-25 S5 Royal Dispatch Luke Currie Matt Laurie $2.40 FS FS FS FS
21-Jul-25 S6 Wollemia Angel Liam Riordan Danny O'Brien $8.50 Other Open Mdn 1429 $11.00
12-Aug-25 S5 Kaazi D Moor Annabel Neesham $5.50 SU 3yo Mdn 1300 $31.00
7-Sep-25 G3 Lots of Time Celine Gaudray Gavin Bedggood $3.10 Other Open Mdn 1300 $7.00
12-Oct-25 G4 Big Mix Logan Bates Annabel Neesham $5.50 Other Open Mdn 1765 $41.00

Bairnsdale, 22nd March, 2026

Race 2, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 1200m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A $4.60
B $4.20
C 3 $4.50
D 11 $4.00
E $4.70
F 3 $4.30
G 3 $3.60
H $4.80
I 3 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

Race 2 and here I suggest that N3 is the most likely bet of the day. The races it has contested were lengths better than this fare, I just want a little better than the $1.95 on offer. I actually think a $101 pop can run second, the N10. The N’s 6,11 & 12 possibly, I mean possibly, after that. This one is the day’s banker.

3 - 10 - 6 - 11

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
3 $2.10 $14.30
10 $3.80 $7.90
6 $6.90 $4.40
11 $14.80 $2.10
12
1
Total $28.70
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 3,6
Exacta 10 3,6
Trifecta 3 6,10,11 6,10,11,12
Last Handful - Bairnsdale, Open Mdn, 1200m Prep Race Type Distance SP
23-Mar-25 S5 Secret Elegance Patrick Moloney Peter Gelagotis $2.35 Other 3yo Maiden 1200 $2.60
21-Jul-25 S6 Mickidamuzz Craig Newitt Patrick Keane $5.00 Other Open Mdn 1217 $7.00
12-Aug-25 S5 Wise Inlaw Emily Pozman Peter Moody $1.60 SU 2 Mdn 1150 $5.50
7-Sep-25 G3 Somebody Told Me Jake Noonan John Salanitri $8.50 FS FS FS FS
12-Oct-25 G4 Brutal World Liam Riordan Simon Zahra $4.40 Other 4Up Maiden 1100 $3.50

Bairnsdale, 22nd March 2026

Race 3, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 1000m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A $4.60
B $4.20
C 6 $4.50
D $4.00
E $4.70
F 10 $4.30
G 7 $3.60
H 10 $4.80
I 10 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

Race 3 and another odds on pop but this time I think it will be beaten. the one to beat it is the N10. Two runs back it was VG in a strong maiden, The opposition is weak. The N9 is a clear second, N7 & N1 (the hot pot) should fight out third.

10 - 9 - 7 - 1

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
10 $1.60 $18.80
9 $4.30 $7.00
7 $20.60 $1.50
3
11
2
Total $27.30
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 9,10
Exacta 10 9
Trifecta 9,10 7,9,10 7,9,10
Last Handful - Bairnsdale, Open Mdn, 1000m Prep Race Type Distance SP
23-Mar-25 S5 Free to Play Patrick Moloney Melanie Bullard $2.50 Other BM 58 1000 $14.00
21-Jul-25 S6 Intriguing State Thomas Stockdale Kasey Wilson $17.00 FU Open Mdn 1450 $6.00
12-Aug-25 S5 Normandy Lass Patrick Moloney Robbie Griffiths $3.70 FU Open Mdn 1200 $26.00
7-Sep-25 G3 Affirmative Smile Celine Gaudray Ben, Will & JD Hayes $3.70 SU Open Mdn 975 $2.70
12-Oct-25 G4 Extragalactic Logan Bates Trent Edmonds $3.00 SU Open Mdn 1000 $18.00

Geelong, 22nd March 2026

Race 1, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 2255m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A 6 $4.60
B $4.20
C 9 $4.50
D $4.00
E 6 $4.70
F 4 $4.30
G $3.60
H $4.80
I 4 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

Ah, the staying maiden, this one is a contest between N’s 4,6 & 7. N4 on top, will jump straight to lead and go all the way. Then the N6 and following N7 & N3. I have little interesting in investing here.

4 - 6 - 7 - 3

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
4 $2.00 $15.00
6 $3.70 $8.20
7 $5.90 $5.10
3 $18.30 $1.70
1
8
Total $28.80
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 4,6
Exacta 7 4,6
Trifecta 4,6,7 4,6,7 3,4,6,7
Last Handful - Geelong, Open Mdn, 2200m Prep Race Type Distance SP
12-Apr-24 G4 El Poder Del Sol Jason Maskiell Liam Howley $8.50 Other Open Mdn 2260 $3.10
10-May-24 S7 Herrlich D Moor Danny O'Brien $6.50 Other Open Mdn 1881 $2.70
15-Jan-25 G4 Wayed to Go Adam McCabe Shane Bottomley $151.00 Other Open Mdn 1600 $101.00
11-Apr-25 G4 Cecchetti Cian MacRedmond Matt Cumani $2.20 Other Open Mdn 2000 $3.80
9-May-25 G4 Adjudicate John Allen Mitchell Freedman $5.00 Other Open Mdn 2000 $21.00

Geelong, 22nd March 2026

Race 2, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 1235m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A $4.60
B $4.20
C 9 $4.50
D 7 $4.00
E $4.70
F 9 $4.30
G 9 $3.60
H $4.80
I 9 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

The N9 on top here in quite a humdrum race. It has far superior form to all but one of the opposition and should crack its maiden win here. I have the N8 as the danger and it should be improved second up. Race drops right away after those 2, first starters are Cheneys so maybe the N4 & N3

9 - 8 - 4 - 3

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
9 $1.40 $21.50
8 $6.70 $4.50
4 $23.50 $1.30
2
11
10
Total $27.30
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 8,9
Exacta 9 8
Trifecta 8,9 8,9 3,4
Last Handful - Geelong, Open Mdn, 1200m Prep Race Type Distance SP
12-Dec-25 G4 Tower Bridge Lachlan Neindorf Mark Walker $4.20 SU Open Mdn 1000 $4.20
5-Jun-25 S6 Presocratics Koby Jennings Ben, Will & JD Hayes $5.00 Other Open Mdn 1200 $3.10
20-Jun-25 S6 Electric Elvis Jordan Childs Grahame Begg $4.20 Other Open Mdn 1400 $1.40
11-Sep-25 S5 Siesta Michael Dee Mick Price $2.30 FU Open Mdn 1300 $1.55
11-Jul-25 S7 Sacred Fort John Allen Ciaron Maher $5.50 SU Open Mdn 1300 $5.50

Geelong, 22nd March 2026

Race 3, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo, 1435m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A 6 $4.60
B $4.20
C 3 $4.50
D 2 $4.00
E 6 $4.70
F 2 $4.30
G 3 $3.60
H 3 $4.80
I 2 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

Here we have the 3yo maiden for the day and Lev seems to think the one resuming from Group & Listed racing maybe the winner. Maybe good enough for second but I am selecting the N3. Good when resuming 2 weeks ago and that fitness race edge is the edge it needs. Not much in the race after that, I have it between N14 & N1 for third.

3 - 2 - 14 - 1

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
2 $2.00 $15.00
3 $4.30 $7.00
14 $8.90 $3.40
1 $17.80 $1.70
12 $24.50 $1.30
5
Total $28.40
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 2,3
Exacta 14 2,3
Trifecta 2,3 2,3,14 1,2,3,12,14
Last Handful - Geelong, 3yo Mdn, 1400m Prep Race Type Distance SP
29-Aug-22 S6 Yaki Ishi Jye McNeil Robbie Griffiths $2.30 SU 3 Maiden 1300 $7.50
12-May-23 S6 Hazel Baby John Allen Maher & Eustace $2.70 Other 3 Maiden 1411 $1.90
30-Jul-23 S5 Poison Chalice Declan Bates Paul Preusker $2.80 FU 3 List/Grp 1600 $61.00
26-Jul-24 S7 Lloyd the Leopard Jarrod Fry Mitchell Freedman $4.80 FS FS FS FS
14-Jan-26 G4 Cashout Beau Mertens Mick Price $1.90 SU Open Mdn 1300 $4.60

Saturday Selections

Plenty of great racing around Australia today and you shouldn’t need me to find a winner. But that is what I am here for and I will add my voice to the plethora of tipsters on the airwaves, in print and on the interweb.

Morphetville, Race 5 N3

You don’t bring be flowers but I bring you the Slipper winner, Streisand. Impressive in the BD and I have not seen one I think is better. Not a stellar 2yo season.

And that is it.

Delta Dawg’s from Pasties Peake

This is Pasties Peake third year of dabbling on the AFL.

In full rounds the outlay will be 20 units, Pasties is still using his initial 200 unit bank roll. If the bank roll is over the 200 mark on GF Day, that excess is invested on the GF. Pasties has a poor record in the GF.

These are not Pasties tips but where he thinks value lies from historical data. Good Luck Pasties!

The Story So Far

Round 2

Match Bet Price Units Poss.
Collect
Game A Hawthorn Sydney Under 186.5 $1.89 3 A x B x C $22.21
Game B Richmond Gold Coast Gold Coast - 40+ $2.03 2 A x B $7.67
Game C Adelaide Western B'Dogs Adelaide - Win $1.93 2 A x C $7.30
2 B x C $7.84
9 $45.02
Match Bet Price Units Poss.
Collect
Game D GWS St. Kilda St. Kilda - Win $2.72 1 D x E x F x G $18.46
Game E Fremantle Melbourne Under 188.5 $1.90 1 D x E x F $9.77
Game F Port Adelaide Essendon Under 185.5 $1.89 1 D x E x G $9.77
Game G West Coast North Melbourne Under 178.5 $1.89 1 D x F x G $9.72
1 E x F x G $6.79
1 D x E $5.17
1 D x F $5.14
1 D x G $5.14
1 E x F $3.59
1 E x G $3.59
1 F x G $3.57
Total 11 $80.70
Units Collect P/L
Opening Round 12 14.97 2.97
Round 1 20 17.32 -2.68
Round 2
Total 32 32.29 0.29

Non competitive Racing

Is it less expensive to keep a horse in training than to retire it?

I ask this question as the amount of distance maidens that are contested in Victoria borders on the ridiculous. I would also go as far as this continued process of propping up horses (and connections) that will never win one race let alone go on to better things could bring a charge of bring disrepute to the industry.

The Prize Money allocated to these races could well be better utilised but first some facts.

The horse I have looked at for this exercise has had 50 starts for zero, nil, zilch wins.  It has been placed second on 6 occasions and placed third in a further 10 races. Let’s call him Clive. Clive is a 7 year old gelding.

Clive has won, with bonuses, 149,418 AUD in prize money. Yes, a non winner has won just shy of 150,000 AUD.

Clive had 17 starts in 2025 and ran second 5 times with two thirds as well a number of fourths and fifth and among his best performances.

Clive generally races near the lead but on occasions gets out the back. When he leads he generally gets bloused on the post and when ridden “quieter” storms home to just miss.

Clive, and he has a few mates in these distance maidens, wants to win but I think those who look after him, don’t want to win. Why would they?

And I do not blame the connections, they are playing the game that has been offered to them.

If Clive wins a race he will never win again and the gravy train will come to an end. There are not enough BM 56’s to make money running a placing every second or third start. At the BM52 level the prize money is probably insufficient to stay in the black.

The prize money for maidens is paid down to 10th placing. Fourth gets $1,600 AUD

These races are bringing disrepute to the racing game.

BTW, Clive trialed recently in anticipation of another return to the race track. Guess where Clive finished in the trial? Yes, second.

And in a final update, Clive returns to competitive racing on Sunday (scratched).

 

Confirmation Bias

One of the biggest traps that any punter can fall into is having and punting based on, mostly unconscious, Confirmation Bias and by Dog it’s difficult to shake. We can go to the interweb and find out the real definition and it is,

“Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values. People display this bias when they select information that supports their views, ignoring contrary information, or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes”.

On most Saturdays, on X and other social media forums you will see racing’s biggest form of confirmation bias and it is nasty. The punter who thinks every selection he makes will win and when it does not, it is time to turn on the jockey.

During winter it will be the avid (feral) footy fan who reckons every ref/umpire call went against their team.

 

But the most over rated, over spruiked and downright incorrect piece of confirmation bias is the the roughie wins in small fields. Have a listen to your radio or television presenter next time a roughie wins in a small field, they will spruik this without fail.

Because it actually happens so rarely, people remember being told it and then waste their punting dough backing the hessian in the next few small fields they encounter.

I only have data on Maiden races but I am sure other classes in horse racing would follow similar trends (maybe my own confirmation bias) so here is some data to chew on.

 

Since March 2020, I have records for 308 races where there have been between 4 and 7 runners.

Of those 308 races, there has been 28 races (9%) where the winner has paid $11.00 or longer. Now that would be a good stat if there had of been only the 1 starter that started $11.00 or longer. However, of the 2042 runners that contested the 308 races, 929 or 45% of them had a SP of $11 or greater,

Now, of those 28 winners,

3 winners were the longest priced runners, they were priced at $16, $16 & $17

8 winners were the second longest priced runner in the race

9 winners were the third longest priced runner in the race

7 winners were the fourth longest priced runner in the race

1 winner was the fifth longest priced runner in the race, this runner was actually the second favourite.

 

So, next time you hear someone tell you to back the burlap sack in a field containing only a few runners you can now confirm that this is not true, it is incorrect, total hogwash.

 

Now excuse me while I go and read my horoscope.

More on Confirmation Bias on the punt.

 

Racing Coverage

BRING BACK THE HESSIAN SACK

The coverage of horse racing is in a very sad state. The name of the sport gives it away, the first word is horse, yet the horse(s) is/are the forgotten participants except for the more than casual punter for whom the coverage gives little. Or too much superfluous information.

 

I thought the coverage may improve once we got over Cup week, but alas, no. I follow the country racing and the coverage of Dunkeld last Saturday may well have been promoted as “Olivia’s Big Day Out”.

 

I am going to assume for this rant that people may watch the actual races on their mobile device. I doubt many people watch the parade and the lead up to a race on their ‘phone. If they do, they may have just found one reason their punting account balance keeps declining.

 

Most serious punters would watch the races on some large screen television or projected screen. The size of some televisions scares me.

 

Most money is on the first four horses in the market, yet in the parade ring, those four runners are gIven as much time as No.18, Ihavenohope, that is paying $201 on fixed odds. Why don’t we have all horses covered as is, but have a Picture in Picture, during the entire parade, of the three or four most favoured runners? Put the PIPs across the top of the screen at the bottom of the screen or down the side, I do not care just keep vision of these runners on the screen until they get to the barriers. They are the first four favorites for a reason, weight of money, that is the weight of the punters money and therefore the four horses that the weight of punters wish to observe.

 

Next, behind the barriers and this applies more to country tracks than to metropolitan courses, but, how hard is to put a camera(s) behind the barriers at all tracks? I would assume that even hiring some scaffolding for the day would be cost effective. There are not than many starting positions at most country tracks.

 

Even the race callers would love this. How many times do you hear a caller say that they cannot see what is happening behind (or in) the barriers? Plenty. And here is a thought, why not have this new cameraman wired up so they can communicate with the caller and tell him/her what is going on. Maybe we can find camerapeople who have some presentation skills and they could even be put to air telling the punters what they can see. Conversely, teach some of the spokemodels some camera operating skills and send them down there,

 

Still with country racing and especially at this time of year when we visit many of the once or twice of year courses. Personally, I would take the machete to the number of race tracks in Victoria but as we are currently stuck with them, let’s do something about the coverage. That is when there is coverage. Racing.com cannot seem to cope with 4 meetings of a Saturday so one of the provincial/country meetings gets zero coverage.

It is television and most punters can see. We don’t need a thousand presenters. More races and less talking is what I want.

 

Even some of the oft used courses have a load of trees inside the course, the caller cannot see the runners, the viewer/punter cannot see the horses and the chyron that supposedly tracks the horses place in the running is a conversation of its own.

 

Surely in this day and age there is a qualified, professional drone operator who could follow the race from a reasonable height? Is this another of the “insurance” risks that race clubs face? Or is it a fear of  “in play” Betfair traders?

 

Don’t get me started on “lightening in the area”.

 

Even if it is not a drone is it possible to string some wires along the back straight and have some “spider cam” action. Keep the poles and remove the wires if this creates a hazard (struck by lightening!) at other times.

Another solution could be one of those aforementioned scaffolds erected, with camera person in place, along the back of the track, either inside or outside the track.

 

But no, just leave it as it is and employ another talking head.

The latest directors fancy seems to be showing the runners from behind, from Flemington to Dunkeld to everywhere in between. This pointless if we cannot see the colors. Can someone explain to the director that the reason jockeys wear different colored silks is for identification. Lookimg at the jockey’s arse helps little with this. Callers please note here: There is no point telling the viewer that different cap colors are being worn if you do not tell us what colors they are making a difference to.

 

Now, after the race has been run and won.

 

Why do we need to see a shed load of replays from artsy, fartsy angles, after the race, when,

 

  • We are waiting for the numbers to be announced/shown

  • We are waiting for the result of a photo finish, (here’s an idea, show a replay and freeze frame of the actual finish of the placing in question).

  • Display the totes as soon as possible, (8 minutes it took the other day).

  • Put the totes on the screen and not in that interminable ribbon at the bottom. There is ample empty space on the screen.

  • All that is needed is one tote and your selected operators Fixed price.

  • If they continue with the ribbon, put the First Four divvy before the Duets. I have never known anyone who bets in Duets.  

I need someone to explain to me the point of having a chyron running at the bottom of the screen that supposedly tells you the horses position in running? Why do we need all the other superfluous information on the screen like how many metres they have gone etc.,

 

The broadcaster should be teaching new punters about the colours of the silks that the jockeys are wearing rather than using a highly inaccurate chyron. The chyron can go an entire race without once displaying the correct order. Pointless and distracting.

 

The visual assumes the punters DO not know the colors, yet then confuse the watcher with an incorrect display.

 

The caller assumes the punter DO NOT know the colors as they will tell all and sundry that one jockey is wearing a black cap to distinguish it from another wearing a red cap. Most times they do not tell the viewers the actual silk colors the different caps are differentiating.

 

And finally for this rant, can the Race Clubs, Broadcaster and Stewards get together and cover up all the distance markers that are not in use for that days racing? I watched a race the other day that went past 4 different 1600m markers and 3 different 1400m markers, etc. Bring back the hessian sack.  

 

I have stopped listening to the wireless. Beyond redemption.