Lean Methodology, Efficiency, Teamwork & Communication

Warrnambool compliments Adelaide Cup Day. Trying Crimson Vine in the Gup.

Form A to Zyrg

We specialise in Maiden races, races that are restricted to horses that have never won a race. Some punters hate them. We LOVE them, demonstrating that, time after time, that the majority of winners in Maiden races can be found, with a bit of effort.

It’s all in the data and we keep and analyse this data for you. Over 5 years of Maiden data. More than 6,000 races and 60,000 runners have their data stored in our vault. Our full story can be found here.

We have the data broken down by race type, by distance, by track, by age, by month, by day and by track condition. Whatever is happening we have it covered.

Details regarding how a certain type of Maiden qualifies as a betting race can be found here.

We practice Lean Methodology. Learn about Lean Punting here.

Find out more about each table we provide to help wth your selections by clicking the title above each table.

QUICK RUN THROUGH

TABLE 1 - FORM A to I

The Stables - The Price Given is based on this Stable winning % over the previous 12 months.

Check out the Bank Roll page for more details.

Lev

Lean Evaluation calculated prices for the Race. The “invest Amount“ is set to collect $30. If you are a $100 punter, the calculation for each horse is 100/Price Wanted. Prices set to 100%

Full descriptions and explanation can be found here.

Warrnambool, 9th March 2026

Race 1, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 1000m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A $4.60
B $4.20
C 2 $4.50
D $4.00
E $4.70
F 6 $4.30
G 6 $3.60
H $4.80
I 6 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

Race 1 and with the original pick having the red pen ran through it, we reassess. It is now the N5 out of a strong race at its only start and J Allen on board. The danger is the N2 if it can produce its best but can it. My bet for the race will be a little eachway the N6. Then the N3

5 - 2 - 6 - 3

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
2 $2.30 $13.10
5 $4.40 $6.90
3 $4.60 $6.60
1 $20.80 $1.50
6 $28.60 $1.10
9
Total $29.20
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 2,5
Exacta 2 3,5,6
Trifecta 2,6 2,5,6 2,3,5,6
Last Handful - Warrnambool, Open, 1000 Prep Race Type Distance LM SP
9-Sep-25 H8 Thaimor Melissa Julius Simon Ryan $11.00 Other Open Mdn 1000 6.40 $14.00
22-Sep-25 S5 Nightime Star Linda Meech Tom Dabernig $4.60 SU Open Mdn 1000 2.80 $6.00
3-Oct-25 H10 Golden Vader Dylan Dunn Jim Conlan $8.50 Other Open Mdn 1000 10.56 $21.00
11-Nov-25 H8 Torotena Dean Yendall Matthew Williams $3.20 FU 2yo Mdn 1100 2.20 $16.00
11-Jan-26 G4 Gwen's Girl Linda Meech Tom Dabernig $1.70 Other Open Mdn 1000 0.40 $3.80

Warrnambool, 9th March, 2026

Race 3, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 2350m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A $4.60
B $4.20
C 9 $4.50
D $4.00
E $4.70
F 4 $4.30
G $3.60
H $4.80
I 9 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

Race 3 and could today be the day that the N4 finally salutes. I have seen this story before. Wily, old trainer and his perpetual place getter finally get a decent price. Boom. I selecting the N4. The N7 is a worthy favorite and the one ikely to spoil our party. Next for me is the N8 and the final selection is the N9. Get the streamers ready.

4 - 7 - 8 - 9

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
4 $2.60 $11.60
6 $5.70 $5.30
9 $10.40 $2.90
7 $10.80 $2.80
2 $16.30 $1.90
3 $16.30 $1.90
Total $26.40
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 4,9
Exacta 9 7,8
Trifecta 4,7,9 4,7,8,9 2,3,4,7,8,9
Last Handful - Warrnambool, 3yo Up, 2350 Prep Race Type Distance LM SP
25-Jan-23 G4 Jugan Tom Madden Lindsey Smith $11.00 Other Open Mdn 1700 6.50 $31.00
23-Oct-23 G4 El Amigos Tom Madden Mark Greig $5.00 Other Open Md 2465 3.15 $16.00
21-Oct-24 S5 Dempsey Girl Jordan Hart John Brooks $10.00 Other Open Mdn 2000 7.60 $20.00
10-Mar-25 G4 Ongatiti Fergus Gregory Ciaron Maher $1.90 Other Open Mdn 1800 5.90 $4.20
22-Sep-25 S5 Tee Eight Will Gordon A & J Williams $2.00 Other Open Mdn 2069 3.75 $2.80

Warrnambool, 9th March 2026

Race 4, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 1300m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A $4.60
B $4.20
C 8 $4.50
D $4.00
E $4.70
F 8 $4.30
G 10 $3.60
H $4.80
I 8 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

Race 3 and the ratings say a handful of chances go around here today. J Allen appears back in form and I reckon he will pilot the winner here. The N8 was just even on debut but too far back on a track that favors leaders. I like it. It stands out to me. Cannot leave out the N11 & N4 & N3 can run well.

8 - 11 - 4 - 3

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
8 $5.10 $5.90
4 $5.50 $5.50
11 $6.10 $5.00
3 $6.60 $4.60
5 $7.80 $3.90
7 $13.70 $2.20
Total $27.10
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 4,8
Exacta 8 3,11
Trifecta 3,4,8,11 3,4,8,11 3,4,5,8,11
Last Handful - Warrnambool, Open, 1300 Prep Race Type Distance LM SP
25-Jan-23 G4 Sir Atlas Beau Mertens Lindsey Smith $2.60 FS FS FS FS FS
06-Oct-23 G4 Bellakai Linda Meech Symon Wilde $8.00 FS FS FS FS FS
4-Oct-24 G4 Imamanzor Linda Meech Symon Wilde $1.85 SU 3yo Mdn 1300 1.46 $6.50
10-Mar-25 G4 Geffina Linda Meech Aaron Purcell $19.00 Other Open Mdn 1300 4.70 $1.65
16-Oct-25 S5 Calypso King Jarrod Fry Paul Koumis $8.50 SU Open Mdn 1147 4.65 $11.00

Warrnambool, 9th March 2026

Race 5, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo, 1400m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A $4.60
B $4.20
C 12 $4.50
D $4.00
E $4.70
F 12 $4.30
G 12 $3.60
H 12 $4.80
I 12 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

The N12 has this race at its mercy. Should race near the lead and unless we find extraordinary talent in one on debut, I cannot see it being beaten. However, this is a Monday maiden. Track data says if a first starter it is likely the N6. To fill the reminings placings, I will suggest N8 & N11

12 - 6 - 8 - 11

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
12 $1.50 $20.00
7 $10.80 $2.80
10 $13.70 $2.20
8 $18.90 $1.60
1 $30.20 $1.00
11 $30.20 $1.00
Total $28.60
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 6,7
Exacta 12 6,8,11
Trifecta 12 6,8,11 6,7,8,11
Last Handful - Warrnambool, 3yo, 1400 Prep Race Type Distance LM SP
31-Oct-24 G4 Cachink Jordan Childs Matthew Williams $3.70 FU Metro Sat 1300 1.70 $4.60
1-Dec-24 H9 Colour Our World Linda Meech Matthew Williams $1.35 Other 3 Mdn 1400 1.25 $6.00
30-Oct-25 G4 La Reine Lachlan Neindorf Shane Nichols $10.00 Other Open Mdn 1300 0.40 $6.00
11-Nov-25 H8 Panda Alert Will Gordon Patrick Payne $4.20 FS FS FS FS FS
30-Nov-25 S7 Flying Done Dean Yendall Matthew Williams $4.20 Other 3 Mdn 1400 2.75 $2.25

Stony Creek, 8th January 2026

Race 2, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 1600m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A 3 $4.60
B $4.20
C 3 $4.50
D 5 $4.00
E 2 $4.70
F 2 $4.30
G 3 $3.60
H $4.80
I 2 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

This what I feel is the most solid bet of the three Stony Creek maidens but that is not making it a good thing, The selection is the N2 and it has been enjoying a solid prep. and today it meets the weakest field it can. For second it is the N3 that was good first up, will test the N2. N’s 6, 8 & 11 after the big two.

2 - 3 - 6 - 8

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
2 $2.80 $10.80
6 $6.10 $5.00
8 $8.20 $3.70
11 $8.60 $3.50
9 $10.00 $3.00
12 $25.70 $1.20
Total $27.20
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 2,3
Exacta 2 6,8,11
Trifecta 2 3,6,8,11 3,6,8,9,11
Last Handful - Stony Creek, Open, 1600 Prep Race Type Distance LM SP
9-Mar-25 G4 Indefinite Teo Nugent Ciaron Maher $3.80 Other Open Mdn 1612 9.45 $3.80
7-Dec-25 H10 Neck High Liam Riordan Andre Perdon $3.20 Other Open Mdn 1430 6.50 $6.00
30-Dec-25 G4 Moonbolt Carleen Hefel Colin Scott $3.60 Other Open Mdn 1600 3.00 $9.00
18-Jan-26 S5 News Travels Fast Jake Noonan D & C Feek $13.00 Other Open mdn 1400 7.77 $31.00
15-Feb-26 S5 Helping Hands Jye McNeil Jason Warren $2.05 FS FS FS FS FS

Stony Creek, 8th March 2026

Race 3, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 1100m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A $4.60
B $4.20
C 9 $4.50
D $4.00
E $4.70
F 7 $4.30
G 7 $3.60
H 7 $4.80
I 7 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

I would really like to see the N7 win this but it just keeps settling too far back but I like the fact that Luke C is back on. Giving it one final chance. I think the leader will be the N9 back from a prep. in Qld. I like this stable with sprinters. Hangs on for second. Anyways, N8, another leader for third. The N7 to swoop over the top. Fourth spot to be fought out between N3 & N11

7 - 9 - 8 - 11

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
7 $4.30 $7.00
9 $5.00 $6.00
8 $6.00 $5.00
3 $6.60 $4.60
11 $9.80 $3.10
12 $18.70 $1.70
Total $27.40
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 7,9
Exacta 7 3,8,9
Trifecta 7,8,9 7,8,9 3,7,8,9,11
Last Handful - Stony Creek, Open, 1100 Prep Race Type Distance LM SP
9-Mar-25 G4 Amraam Dakotah Keane Cliff Brown $3.20 Other Open Mdn 1000 3.31 $11.00
7-Dec-25 H10 Rodriquez Nathan Punch Brian McGrath $11.00 Other Open Mdn 1000 0.02 $1.40
30-Dec-25 G4 Montjuic Magic Logan McNeil Robbie Griffiths $3.20 FU F&M Maiden 1000 3.56 $5.00
18-Jan-26 S5 O'Mosa Sheridan Clarke Doug Harrison $41.00 Other Open Mdn 1300 10.11 $101.00
15-Feb-26 S5 Aussie Adaptor Jett Stanley Jason Warren $12.00 FU Open Mdn 1600 5.25 $6.50

Saturday Selections

Plenty of great racing around Australia today and you shouldn’t need me to find a winner. But that is what I am here for and I will add my voice to the plethora of tipsters on the airwaves, in print and on the interweb.

Murray Bridge, Race 3 N9

Murray Bridge, Race 5 N1

And that is it.

Delta Dawg’s from Pasties Peake

This is Pasties Peake third year of dabbling on the AFL.

In full rounds the outlay will be 20 units, Pasties is still using his initial 200 unit bank roll. If the bank roll is over the 200 mark on GF Day, that excess is invested on the GF. Pasties has a poor record in the GF.

These are not Pasties tips but where he thinks value lies from historical data. Good Luck Pasties!

Game Bet Price Units Combo
A Sydney V Carlton Sydney (1 - 39) $2.20 2 A x B x C $23.58
B Gold Coast V Geelong Geelong (1 - 39) $2.85 2 A x B $12.54
C GWS V Hawthorn Under 170.5 $1.88 2 A x C $8.27
2 B x C $10.72
8 $55.10
D Brisbane V Western B'Dogs Over 166.5 $1.89 4 D x E $14.97
E St. Kilda V Collingwood Collingwood - Win $1.98
4 $14.97
Opening Round 12 $70.07

From the Bakery - Opening Round

Carlton - the Croissants, looked nice and fresh early but not a lot of substance upon closer inspection.

Sydney - Sliced white loaf (warm) serviceable and you would be happy to buy another on the way home from church next Sunday.

Geelong - knot rolls, missing a couple of key ingredients and only half baked at this stage

Gold Coast - sweet like a slice of hedgehog but go easy, been known to get the chocolate sweats as the season progresses.

Western Bulldogs - Like a Crème Brûlée closes out a meal, the Doggies closed out this match sweetly.

Brisbane - Sour dough loaf that was a little under cooked

St. Kilda - One bag of Rocky Road and a futures order for plenty more

Collingwood - A stock standard McRae Magpie game, could not be more Cream Bun if they tried.

Non competitive Racing

Is it less expensive to keep a horse in training than to retire it?

I ask this question as the amount of distance maidens that are contested in Victoria borders on the ridiculous. I would also go as far as this continued process of propping up horses (and connections) that will never win one race let alone go on to better things could bring a charge of bring disrepute to the industry.

The Prize Money allocated to these races could well be better utilised but first some facts.

The horse I have looked at for this exercise has had 50 starts for zero, nil, zilch wins.  It has been placed second on 6 occasions and placed third in a further 10 races. Let’s call him Clive. Clive is a 7 year old gelding.

Clive has won, with bonuses, 149,418 AUD in prize money. Yes, a non winner has won just shy of 150,000 AUD.

Clive had 17 starts in 2025 and ran second 5 times with two thirds as well a number of fourths and fifth and among his best performances.

Clive generally races near the lead but on occasions gets out the back. When he leads he generally gets bloused on the post and when ridden “quieter” storms home to just miss.

Clive, and he has a few mates in these distance maidens, wants to win but I think those who look after him, don’t want to win. Why would they?

And I do not blame the connections, they are playing the game that has been offered to them.

If Clive wins a race he will never win again and the gravy train will come to an end. There are not enough BM 56’s to make money running a placing every second or third start. At the BM52 level the prize money is probably insufficient to stay in the black.

The prize money for maidens is paid down to 10th placing. Fourth gets $1,600 AUD

These races are bringing disrepute to the racing game.

BTW, Clive trialed recently in anticipation of another return to the race track. Guess where Clive finished in the trial? Yes, second.

And in a final update, Clive returns to competitive racing on Sunday (scratched).

 

Confirmation Bias

One of the biggest traps that any punter can fall into is having and punting based on, mostly unconscious, Confirmation Bias and by Dog it’s difficult to shake. We can go to the interweb and find out the real definition and it is,

“Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values. People display this bias when they select information that supports their views, ignoring contrary information, or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes”.

On most Saturdays, on X and other social media forums you will see racing’s biggest form of confirmation bias and it is nasty. The punter who thinks every selection he makes will win and when it does not, it is time to turn on the jockey.

During winter it will be the avid (feral) footy fan who reckons every ref/umpire call went against their team.

 

But the most over rated, over spruiked and downright incorrect piece of confirmation bias is the the roughie wins in small fields. Have a listen to your radio or television presenter next time a roughie wins in a small field, they will spruik this without fail.

Because it actually happens so rarely, people remember being told it and then waste their punting dough backing the hessian in the next few small fields they encounter.

I only have data on Maiden races but I am sure other classes in horse racing would follow similar trends (maybe my own confirmation bias) so here is some data to chew on.

 

Since March 2020, I have records for 308 races where there have been between 4 and 7 runners.

Of those 308 races, there has been 28 races (9%) where the winner has paid $11.00 or longer. Now that would be a good stat if there had of been only the 1 starter that started $11.00 or longer. However, of the 2042 runners that contested the 308 races, 929 or 45% of them had a SP of $11 or greater,

Now, of those 28 winners,

3 winners were the longest priced runners, they were priced at $16, $16 & $17

8 winners were the second longest priced runner in the race

9 winners were the third longest priced runner in the race

7 winners were the fourth longest priced runner in the race

1 winner was the fifth longest priced runner in the race, this runner was actually the second favourite.

 

So, next time you hear someone tell you to back the burlap sack in a field containing only a few runners you can now confirm that this is not true, it is incorrect, total hogwash.

 

Now excuse me while I go and read my horoscope.

More on Confirmation Bias on the punt.

 

Racing Coverage

BRING BACK THE HESSIAN SACK

The coverage of horse racing is in a very sad state. The name of the sport gives it away, the first word is horse, yet the horse(s) is/are the forgotten participants except for the more than casual punter for whom the coverage gives little. Or too much superfluous information.

 

I thought the coverage may improve once we got over Cup week, but alas, no. I follow the country racing and the coverage of Dunkeld last Saturday may well have been promoted as “Olivia’s Big Day Out”.

 

I am going to assume for this rant that people may watch the actual races on their mobile device. I doubt many people watch the parade and the lead up to a race on their ‘phone. If they do, they may have just found one reason their punting account balance keeps declining.

 

Most serious punters would watch the races on some large screen television or projected screen. The size of some televisions scares me.

 

Most money is on the first four horses in the market, yet in the parade ring, those four runners are gIven as much time as No.18, Ihavenohope, that is paying $201 on fixed odds. Why don’t we have all horses covered as is, but have a Picture in Picture, during the entire parade, of the three or four most favoured runners? Put the PIPs across the top of the screen at the bottom of the screen or down the side, I do not care just keep vision of these runners on the screen until they get to the barriers. They are the first four favorites for a reason, weight of money, that is the weight of the punters money and therefore the four horses that the weight of punters wish to observe.

 

Next, behind the barriers and this applies more to country tracks than to metropolitan courses, but, how hard is to put a camera(s) behind the barriers at all tracks? I would assume that even hiring some scaffolding for the day would be cost effective. There are not than many starting positions at most country tracks.

 

Even the race callers would love this. How many times do you hear a caller say that they cannot see what is happening behind (or in) the barriers? Plenty. And here is a thought, why not have this new cameraman wired up so they can communicate with the caller and tell him/her what is going on. Maybe we can find camerapeople who have some presentation skills and they could even be put to air telling the punters what they can see. Conversely, teach some of the spokemodels some camera operating skills and send them down there,

 

Still with country racing and especially at this time of year when we visit many of the once or twice of year courses. Personally, I would take the machete to the number of race tracks in Victoria but as we are currently stuck with them, let’s do something about the coverage. That is when there is coverage. Racing.com cannot seem to cope with 4 meetings of a Saturday so one of the provincial/country meetings gets zero coverage.

It is television and most punters can see. We don’t need a thousand presenters. More races and less talking is what I want.

 

Even some of the oft used courses have a load of trees inside the course, the caller cannot see the runners, the viewer/punter cannot see the horses and the chyron that supposedly tracks the horses place in the running is a conversation of its own.

 

Surely in this day and age there is a qualified, professional drone operator who could follow the race from a reasonable height? Is this another of the “insurance” risks that race clubs face? Or is it a fear of  “in play” Betfair traders?

 

Don’t get me started on “lightening in the area”.

 

Even if it is not a drone is it possible to string some wires along the back straight and have some “spider cam” action. Keep the poles and remove the wires if this creates a hazard (struck by lightening!) at other times.

Another solution could be one of those aforementioned scaffolds erected, with camera person in place, along the back of the track, either inside or outside the track.

 

But no, just leave it as it is and employ another talking head.

The latest directors fancy seems to be showing the runners from behind, from Flemington to Dunkeld to everywhere in between. This pointless if we cannot see the colors. Can someone explain to the director that the reason jockeys wear different colored silks is for identification. Lookimg at the jockey’s arse helps little with this. Callers please note here: There is no point telling the viewer that different cap colors are being worn if you do not tell us what colors they are making a difference to.

 

Now, after the race has been run and won.

 

Why do we need to see a shed load of replays from artsy, fartsy angles, after the race, when,

 

  • We are waiting for the numbers to be announced/shown

  • We are waiting for the result of a photo finish, (here’s an idea, show a replay and freeze frame of the actual finish of the placing in question).

  • Display the totes as soon as possible, (8 minutes it took the other day).

  • Put the totes on the screen and not in that interminable ribbon at the bottom. There is ample empty space on the screen.

  • All that is needed is one tote and your selected operators Fixed price.

  • If they continue with the ribbon, put the First Four divvy before the Duets. I have never known anyone who bets in Duets.  

I need someone to explain to me the point of having a chyron running at the bottom of the screen that supposedly tells you the horses position in running? Why do we need all the other superfluous information on the screen like how many metres they have gone etc.,

 

The broadcaster should be teaching new punters about the colours of the silks that the jockeys are wearing rather than using a highly inaccurate chyron. The chyron can go an entire race without once displaying the correct order. Pointless and distracting.

 

The visual assumes the punters DO not know the colors, yet then confuse the watcher with an incorrect display.

 

The caller assumes the punter DO NOT know the colors as they will tell all and sundry that one jockey is wearing a black cap to distinguish it from another wearing a red cap. Most times they do not tell the viewers the actual silk colors the different caps are differentiating.

 

And finally for this rant, can the Race Clubs, Broadcaster and Stewards get together and cover up all the distance markers that are not in use for that days racing? I watched a race the other day that went past 4 different 1600m markers and 3 different 1400m markers, etc. Bring back the hessian sack.  

 

I have stopped listening to the wireless. Beyond redemption.