The Myth of Busyness
Poo Park & Cranbourne today/night and once again I pose the question “Why do they bother with Cranbourne once the footy starts”. It is almost embarassing and turnover would not cover the cost of turning the lights on.
Still let’s hope we have unearthed a couple of winners at Werribee to cover the weekends two up games.
Lest We Forget.
Form A to Zyrg
We specialise in Maiden races, races that are restricted to horses that have never won a race. Some punters hate them. We LOVE them, demonstrating that, time after time, that the majority of winners in Maiden races can be found, with a bit of effort.
It’s all in the data and we keep and analyse this data for you. Over 6 years of Maiden data. More than 6,500 races and 64,000 runners have their data stored in our vault. Our full story can be found here.
We have the data broken down by race type, by distance, by track, by age, by month, by day and by track condition. Whatever is happening we have it covered.
Details regarding how a certain type of Maiden qualifies as a betting race can be found here.
We practice Lean Methodology. Learn about Lean Punting here.
Find out more about each table we provide to help wth your selections by clicking the title above each table.
QUICK RUN THROUGH
TABLE 1 - FORM A to I
The Stables - The Price Given is based on this Stable winning % over the previous 12 months.
Check out the Bank Roll page for more details.
Lev
Lean Evaluation calculated prices for the Race. The “invest Amount“ is set to collect $30. If you are a $100 punter, the calculation for each horse is 100/Price Wanted. Prices set to 100%
Full descriptions and explanation can be found here.
Werribee, 24th April 2026
Race 1, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 1012m
| From A to I | ||
|---|---|---|
| Stable |
Tab No. | Historic Price |
| A | $4.60 | |
| B | $4.20 | |
| C | $4.50 | |
| D | $4.00 | |
| E | $4.70 | |
| F | 5 | $4.30 |
| G | 6 | $3.60 |
| H | $4.80 | |
| I | 5 | $3.70 |
Zyrg Says:
Race 1 from Werribee and come up against a nice little sprint race. Leading the day out with the N5, it beat a last start winner home last time and that form should hold up. An unusual Trainer/Jockey combo. I am going suggest the N11 for second, I am quite taken by its debut run and it was not hopeless fater that. After the quinella runners I think 3rd place is between the N6 & N4 and I have gone it that order. There are other hopes. Tread warily.
5 - Caberet Queen
11 - Uyuni
6 - Done Leavy
4 - Jasmina
| Lev | ||
|---|---|---|
| TAB No. |
Price Wanted |
Invest Amount |
| 5 | $2.50 | $12.00 |
| 11 | $3.30 | $9.10 |
| 10 | $8.50 | $3.60 |
| 8 | $11.50 | $2.70 |
| 6 | $18.10 | $1.70 |
| 9 | ||
| Total | $29.90 |
| Zyrg Exotics | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Type | For 1st |
For 2nd |
For 3rd |
| Quinella | 5,11 | ||
| Exacta | 5 | 6 | |
| Trifecta | 5,6 | 5,6,11 | 4,5,6,11 |
| Last Handful - Werribee, Open Mdn, 1000 m | Prep | Race Type | Distance | Los. Mgn | SP | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31-May-25 | G4 | Wiltshire Square | Linda Meech | Ciaron Maher | $1.45 | SU | 2yo Mdn | 1000 | 1.25 | $2.35 |
| 7-Dec-25 | S5 | Royal Rendezvous | Lachlan Neindorf | Mark Walker | $16.00 | FS | FS | FS | FS | FS |
| 12-Jan-26 | G4 | Nicerine | Beau Mertens | Peter Gelagotis | $3.30 | FS | FS | FS | FS | FS |
| 1-Feb-26 | G4 | Discreet Point | John Allen | Niki O'Shea | $4.80 | SU | 3yo Mdn | 1014 | 1.31 | $5.00 |
| 11-Apr-26 | G4 | Bear Champ | Jake Noonan | Dan Meagher | $2.15 | FU | BM 60 | 1400 | 22.00 | $18.00 |
Werribee, 24th April 2026
Race 2, Maiden, Set Weights, 4yo & Up, 1625m
| From A to I | ||
|---|---|---|
| Stable |
Tab No. | Historic Price |
| A | $4.60 | |
| B | $4.20 | |
| C | 9 | $4.50 |
| D | $4.00 | |
| E | $4.70 | |
| F | 5 | $4.30 |
| G | 3 | $3.60 |
| H | $4.80 | |
| I | 5 | $3.70 |
Zyrg Says:
Race 2 and I think we have clear winner here and it is the N5. This runner has munched plenty of dollar bills in its career and I am hoping the spell has improved its brain, hoping it has fouund the will to win. Has jumped out okay. I think the main danger is the N3, looked to be a future winner last start, then the N2. Let’s have the N9 in the First Four.
5 - Phantom Chase
3 - Monsun’s Pride
2 - Fear No One
9 - Enchanted Lass
| Lev | ||
|---|---|---|
| TAB No. |
Price Wanted |
Invest Amount |
| 5 | $2.50 | $12.00 |
| 2 | $6.30 | $4.80 |
| 3 | $8.50 | $3.60 |
| 9 | $9.00 | $3.40 |
| 6 | $14.90 | $2.10 |
| 10 | $18.10 | $1.70 |
| Total | $27.60 |
| Zyrg Exotics | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Type | For 1st |
For 2nd |
For 3rd |
| Quinella | 3,5 | ||
| Exacta | 5 | 2,9 | |
| Trifecta | 2,3,5 | 2,3,5,9 | 2,3,5,9 |
Werribee, 24th April 2026
Race 3, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo, 1625m
| From A to I | ||
|---|---|---|
| Stable |
Tab No. | Historic Price |
| A | 3 | $4.60 |
| B | 3 | $4.20 |
| C | 9 | $4.50 |
| D | $4.00 | |
| E | 3 | $4.70 |
| F | 2 | $4.30 |
| G | 3 | $3.60 |
| H | 9 | $4.80 |
| I | 12 | $3.70 |
Zyrg Says:
Race 3 and I am jumping on the N3 in this contest. The past 3 runs have all been good, have good form lines and I just think it will be too good. BOTD. I have the N2 and the N7 fighting out second position and I will put the N7 slightly ahead. The top 3 have lengths on the rest. Best of the rest, N12
3 - Genomic
7 - No No No No No
2 - Camelot Time
12 - Meleys
| Lev | ||
|---|---|---|
| TAB No. |
Price Wanted |
Invest Amount |
| 2 | $3.30 | $9.10 |
| 3 | $4.70 | $6.40 |
| 12 | $5.70 | $5.30 |
| 9 | $7.80 | $3.90 |
| 8 | $11.60 | $2.60 |
| 1 | $18.10 | $1.70 |
| Total | $29.00 |
| Zyrg Exotics | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Type | For 1st |
For 2nd |
For 3rd |
| Quinella | 2,3 | ||
| Exacta | 12 | 2,3 | |
| Trifecta | 2,3 | 2,3 | 2,3,5,8,12 |
Werribee, 24th April, 2026
Race 4, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 2238m
| From A to I | ||
|---|---|---|
| Stable |
Tab No. | Historic Price |
| A | $4.60 | |
| B | $4.20 | |
| C | 11 | $4.50 |
| D | $4.00 | |
| E | $4.70 | |
| F | 11 | $4.30 |
| G | 11 | $3.60 |
| H | $4.80 | |
| I | 11 | $3.70 |
Zyrg Says:
The final maiden, at Poo Park today, and a dsitance maiden. Looks to be a benefit for the N11 from my perspctive. It has been building up nicely in distance and today’s 2238m will suit. I have been waiting for this distance since Dec ‘25. If there is a dnager ot is the N12. It got VT last time but should not go for prematurely with Bates back on. After that, the N6 & N9 to fight out third placing.
11 - Certainly Quiet
12 - Egyptian Legend
6 - Zikron
9 - Explain.
| Lev | ||
|---|---|---|
| TAB No. |
Price Wanted |
Invest Amount |
| 11 | $2.90 | $10.40 |
| 12 | $2.90 | $10.40 |
| 6 | $5.70 | $5.30 |
| 9 | $26.00 | $1.20 |
| 8 | ||
| 10 | ||
| Total | $27.30 |
| Zyrg Exotics | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Type | For 1st |
For 2nd |
For 3rd |
| Quinella | 11,12 | ||
| Exacta | 11 | 12 | |
| Trifecta | 11,12 | 6,11,12 | 6,9,11,12 |
| Last Handful - Werribee, Open Mdn, 2238 m | Prep | Race Type | Distance | Los. Mgn | SP | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Feb-24 | G4 | Bulbuk | Beau Mertens | Lindsey Smith | $3.00 | Other | Open Mdn | 1700 | 5.85 | $10.00 |
| 6-May-24 | S5 | Whiskey Tango | Will Gordon | Patrick Payne | $1.75 | Other | Open Mdn | 2400 | 3.02 | $5.50 |
| 17-May-24 | S5 | Crown of Catherine | Will Gordon | Robbie Griffiths | $2.40 | Other | Open Mdn | 1728 | 6.10 | $19.00 |
| 16-May-25 | G4 | Forever Well | Dean Parker | Symon Wilde | $8.50 | Other | Open Mdn | 2000 | 1.25 | $26.00 |
| 17-Feb-26 | G4 | High Heeled | Tom Madden | Joanne Mugavin | $4.00 | FU | Open Mdn | 2600 | 1.75 | $7.00 |
Cranbourne, 24th April 2026
Race 1, Maiden, Set Weights, Fillies & Mares, 1600m
| From A to I | ||
|---|---|---|
| Stable |
Tab No. | Historic Price |
| A | 5 | $4.60 |
| B | $4.20 | |
| C | $4.50 | |
| D | $4.00 | |
| E | 5 | $4.70 |
| F | 4 | $4.30 |
| G | 5 | $3.60 |
| H | 5 | $4.80 |
| I | 4 | $3.70 |
Zyrg Says:
Tonight, if the N5 cannot win the opening race I don;t know if it has a future. It has shown promise, it has some decent runs and this is a fairly weak affair. The Last Chance Saloon for the N5. I am going with the debutant, N7 for second and the stayer resuming, N4 for third. Tossing in the N3 for 4th, something has to finish there.
5 - Tisseyre
7 - Zeyno
4 - Ranselot
3 - Kaddari
| Lev | ||
|---|---|---|
| TAB No. |
Price Wanted |
Invest Amount |
| 4 | $2.20 | $13.70 |
| 7 | $2.80 | $10.80 |
| 5 | $6.20 | $4.90 |
| 6 | ||
| 1 | ||
| 3 | ||
| Total | $29.40 |
| Zyrg Exotics | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Type | For 1st |
For 2nd |
For 3rd |
| Quinella | 4,7 | ||
| Exacta | 5 | 4,7 | |
| Trifecta | 5 | 1,7 | 1,6,7 |
| Last Handful - Cranbourne, F&M Mdn, 1600 m | Prep | Race Type | Distance | Los. Mgn | SP | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29-Apr-22 | G4 | Sunday's Best | Liam Riordan | Danny O'Brien | $2.80 | Other | Open Mdn | 1600 | 0.50 | $4.80 |
| 7-Oct-22 | H9 | Sociabeel | D Moor | Busuttin & Young | $1.30 | Other | Open Mdn | 1733 | 0.95 | $4.00 |
| 2-Oct-24 | G4 | Realika | Craig Williams | Greg Eurell | $5.50 | Other | Open Mdn | 1600 | 1.81 | $12.00 |
| 13-Dec-24 | G4 | Alabama Girl | Beau Mertens | Julius Sandhu | $1.45 | Other | Open Mdn | 1500 | 1.32 | $10.00 |
| 10-Apr-26 | S5 | Charlecote Mill | Zac Spain | Paul Koumis | $4.20 | Other | Open mdn | 1607 | 1.75 | $6.50 |
Cranbourne, 24th April, 2026
Race 3, Maiden, Set Weights, Fillies & Mares, 1200m
| From A to I | ||
|---|---|---|
| Stable |
Tab No. | Historic Price |
| A | $4.60 | |
| B | $4.20 | |
| C | $4.50 | |
| D | $4.00 | |
| E | $4.70 | |
| F | 11 | $4.30 |
| G | 5 | $3.60 |
| H | $4.80 | |
| I | 11 | $3.70 |
Zyrg Says:
Race 3 and the N11 is the one I think is the testing material. Not over whelming form but good enough here. The N1 for second after those the shortest of the debutants, N6.
7 - Glisk
11 - Sternin
1 - Attuma
6 - Astiquer
| Lev | ||
|---|---|---|
| TAB No. |
Price Wanted |
Invest Amount |
| 11 | $1.70 | $17.70 |
| 6 | $3.50 | $8.60 |
| 2 | $27.70 | $1.10 |
| 4 | ||
| 1 | ||
| 5 | ||
| Total | $27.40 |
| Zyrg Exotics | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Type | For 1st |
For 2nd |
For 3rd |
| Quinella | 6,11 | ||
| Exacta | 11 | 6 | |
| Trifecta | 11 | 2,6 | 1,2,4,5,6 |
| Last Handful - Cranbourne, F&M Mdn, 1200 m | Prep | Race Type | Distance | Los. Mgn | SP | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27-May-22 | S5 | Gee Bee Ess | Thomas Stockdale | Richard Laming | $8.50 | SU | Open Mdn | 1200 | 1.95 | $8.50 |
| 23-Dec-22 | G4 | Nunthorpe | Jamie Kah | Peter Moody | $2.00 | FS | FS | FS | FS | FS |
| 29-Dec-23 | G4 | Kiko | Dylan Brown-McG | Jim Conlan | $4.80 | SU | Open Mdn | 1200 | 3.00 | $1.95 |
| 16-May-25 | G4 | Ferocious Frankie | Jett Stanley | Busuttin & Young | $2.30 | FS | FS | FS | FS | FS |
| 20-Mar-26 | G4 | Jewel of Heaven | Luke Nolan | Peter Moody | $1.85 | FU | 2yo Mdn | 1212 | 2.05 | $16.00 |
Cranbourne, 24th April, 2026
Race 4, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 1000m
| From A to I | ||
|---|---|---|
| Stable |
Tab No. | Historic Price |
| A | 4 | $4.60 |
| B | $4.20 | |
| C | $4.50 | |
| D | $4.00 | |
| E | 4 | $4.70 |
| F | 6 | $4.30 |
| G | 7 | $3.60 |
| H | $4.80 | |
| I | 7 | $3.70 |
Zyrg Says:
Probably
7 - Blondie’s Award
6 - Andjuliet
1 - Donebravo
2 - Morning Ralph
| Lev | ||
|---|---|---|
| TAB No. |
Price Wanted |
Invest Amount |
| 6 | $3.00 | $11.20 |
| 7 | $4.20 | $7.20 |
| 1 | $5.50 | $5.90 |
| 4 | $7.90 | $3.80 |
| 2 | $24.60 | $1.30 |
| 9 | ||
| Total | $29.40 |
| Zyrg Exotics | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Type | For 1st |
For 2nd |
For 3rd |
| Quinella | 6,7 | ||
| Exacta | 4 | 6,7 | |
| Trifecta | 4,7 | 4,6,7 | 1,2,4,6,7 |
| Last Handful - Cranbourne, Open Mdn, 1000 m | Prep | Race Type | Distance | Los. Mgn | SP | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12-Dec-25 | G4 | Jewel Bandit | Brad Rawiller | M & L Kavanagh | $21.00 | FS | FS | FS | FS | FS |
| 3-Jan-26 | G4 | Blue Akoya | Teo Nugent | A & S Freedman | $2.15 | Other | Open Mdn | 1000 | 0.35 | $3.30 |
| 10-Jan-26 | G4 | Ellsworth | Jason Maskiell | Lloyd Kennewell | $3.90 | FS | FS | FS | FS | FS |
| 6-Feb-26 | G4 | Black Coal | Jamie Mott | Gavin Bedggood | $1.60 | Other | Open Mdn | 1200 | 0.15 | $12.00 |
| 17-Apr-26 | S6 | Logam | D Stackhouse | Cindy Alderson | $3.00 | SU | 3yo Mdn | 1000 | 0.50 | $2.90 |
Delta Dawg’s from Pasties Peake
This is Pasties Peake third year of dabbling on the AFL.
In full rounds the outlay will be 20 units, Pasties is still using his initial 200 unit bank roll. If the bank roll is over the 200 mark on GF Day, that excess is invested on the GF. Pasties has a poor record in the GF.
These are not Pasties tips but where he thinks value lies from historical data. Good Luck Pasties!
| Match | Bet | Price | Units | Poss. Collect |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Game | A | Western Bulldogs | Sydney | Under 188.5 | $1.89 | 1 | A x B x C | $7.82 |
| Game | B | Richmond | Melbourne | Under 188.5 | $1.80 | 2 | A x B | $6.80 |
| Game | C | Hawthorn | Gold Coast | Hawthorn - 1-39 | $2.30 | 2 | A x C | $8.69 |
| 2 | B x C | $8.28 | ||||||
| 7 | $31.60 | |||||||
The Story So Far
| Units | Collect | P/L | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Opening Round | 12 | 14.97 | 2.97 |
| Round 1 | 20 | 17.32 | -2.68 |
| Round 2 | 20 | 12.84 | -7.16 |
| Round 3 | 20 | 56.04 | 36.04 |
| Round 4 | 20 | 49.68 | 29.68 |
| Round 5 | 20 | 7.22 | -12.78 |
| Total | 112 | 158.07 | 46.07 |
Round 7
Field Sizes
The Tables below show the average number of runners over distance from 1000m to 1600m.
They are for Open Maidens only.
They are for the tracks in each distance where the most (top 13) total races have been ran.
I am assuming that Cranbourne & Pakenham rate low as they are tracks with a lesser circumference and skinnier track than others. Just assuming that this is why these tracks were chosen to have lights installed. I have NOT checked for differences between day meetings and night meetings at these tracks.
| Rank | Track - 1000m | Races | Avge. Field Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Echuca | 21 | 10.43 |
| 2 | Warracknabeal | 26 | 10.27 |
| 3 | Moe | 25 | 10.12 |
| 4 | Seymour | 23 | 10.04 |
| 5 | Yarra Valley | 28 | 9.86 |
| 6 | Swan Hill | 41 | 9.80 |
| 7 | Bairnsdale | 27 | 9.78 |
| 8 | Bendigo | 32 | 9.75 |
| 9 | Pakenham | 26 | 9.15 |
| 10 | Warrnambool | 27 | 8.81 |
| 11 | Cranbourne | 53 | 8.57 |
| 12 | Mornington | 36 | 8.50 |
| 13 | Ballarat | 24 | 7.88 |
| Rank | Track - 1100m | Races | Avge. Field Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wangaratta | 21 | 11.00 |
| 2 | Wodonga | 30 | 10.67 |
| 3 | Echuca | 17 | 10.65 |
| 4 | Kilmore | 22 | 10.00 |
| 5 | Moe | 27 | 9.96 |
| 6 | Werribee | 20 | 9.95 |
| 7 | Bendigo | 31 | 9.81 |
| 8 | Warrnambool | 22 | 9.73 |
| 9 | Kyneton | 28 | 9.68 |
| 10 | Stawell | 45 | 9.47 |
| 11 | Ararat | 22 | 9.32 |
| 12 | Geelong | 45 | 8.98 |
| 13 | Ballarat | 17 | 8.71 |
| Rank | Track - 1200m | Races | Avge. Field Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swan Hill | 29 | 11.21 |
| 2 | Echuca | 35 | 10.97 |
| 3 | Benalla | 31 | 10.97 |
| 4 | Moe | 42 | 10.67 |
| 5 | Warracknabeal | 42 | 10.48 |
| 6 | Kyneton | 30 | 10.40 |
| 7 | Geelong | 54 | 10.30 |
| 8 | Warrnambool | 33 | 10.21 |
| 9 | Mornington | 40 | 9.90 |
| 10 | Pakenham | 32 | 9.63 |
| 11 | Cranbourne | 40 | 9.55 |
| 12 | Pakenham | 31 | 9.52 |
| 13 | Ballarat | 39 | 9.08 |
| Rank | Track - 1300m | Races | Avge. Field Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swan Hill | 23 | 11.96 |
| 2 | Wangaratta | 15 | 11.87 |
| 3 | Seymour | 14 | 11.50 |
| 4 | Ararat | 28 | 11.39 |
| 5 | Warrnambool | 11 | 11.36 |
| 6 | Stawell | 14 | 10.93 |
| 7 | Wodonga | 12 | 10.75 |
| 8 | Echuca | 18 | 10.56 |
| 9 | Mildura | 2 | 10.50 |
| 10 | Bendigo | 35 | 10.34 |
| 11 | Geelong | 37 | 10.24 |
| 12 | Cranbourne | 33 | 9.97 |
| 13 | Avoca | 10 | 9.70 |
| Rank | Track - 1400m | Races | Avge. Field Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamilton | 29 | 11.72 |
| 2 | Echuca | 40 | 11.65 |
| 3 | Wangaratta | 38 | 11.58 |
| 4 | Benalla | 36 | 11.36 |
| 5 | Bendigo | 35 | 11.34 |
| 6 | Geelong | 43 | 11.12 |
| 7 | Warrnambool | 36 | 11.08 |
| 8 | Horsham | 29 | 10.97 |
| 9 | Sale | 48 | 10.94 |
| 10 | Werribee | 35 | 10.29 |
| 11 | Ballarat | 36 | 10.28 |
| 12 | Cranbourne | 52 | 10.19 |
| 13 | Pakenham | 79 | 10.06 |
| Rank | Track - 1500m | Races | Avge. Field Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edenhope | 5 | 11.00 |
| 2 | Geelong | 29 | 10.28 |
| 3 | Mornington | 39 | 9.97 |
| 4 | Tatura | 8 | 9.88 |
| 5 | Yarra Valley | 22 | 9.82 |
| 6 | Sale | 5 | 9.80 |
| 7 | Bendigo | 16 | 9.69 |
| 8 | Kilmore | 38 | 9.34 |
| 9 | Kyneton | 43 | 9.26 |
| 10 | Cranbourne | 9 | 9.11 |
| 11 | Ballarat | 12 | 9.08 |
| 12 | |||
| 13 |
| Rank | Track - 1300m | Races | Avge. Field Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swan Hill | 23 | 11.96 |
| 2 | Wangaratta | 15 | 11.87 |
| 3 | Seymour | 14 | 11.50 |
| 4 | Ararat | 28 | 11.39 |
| 5 | Warrnambool | 11 | 11.36 |
| 6 | Stawell | 14 | 10.93 |
| 7 | Wodonga | 12 | 10.75 |
| 8 | Echuca | 18 | 10.56 |
| 9 | Mildura | 2 | 10.50 |
| 10 | Bendigo | 35 | 10.34 |
| 11 | Geelong | 37 | 10.24 |
| 12 | Cranbourne | 33 | 9.97 |
| 13 | Avoca | 10 | 9.70 |
Non competitive Racing
Is it less expensive to keep a horse in training than to retire it?
I ask this question as the amount of distance maidens that are contested in Victoria borders on the ridiculous. I would also go as far as this continued process of propping up horses (and connections) that will never win one race let alone go on to better things could bring a charge of bring disrepute to the industry.
The Prize Money allocated to these races could well be better utilised but first some facts.
The horse I have looked at for this exercise has had 50 starts for zero, nil, zilch wins. It has been placed second on 6 occasions and placed third in a further 10 races. Let’s call him Clive. Clive is a 7 year old gelding.
Clive has won, with bonuses, 149,418 AUD in prize money. Yes, a non winner has won just shy of 150,000 AUD.
Clive had 17 starts in 2025 and ran second 5 times with two thirds as well a number of fourths and fifth and among his best performances.
Clive generally races near the lead but on occasions gets out the back. When he leads he generally gets bloused on the post and when ridden “quieter” storms home to just miss.
Clive, and he has a few mates in these distance maidens, wants to win but I think those who look after him, don’t want to win. Why would they?
And I do not blame the connections, they are playing the game that has been offered to them.
If Clive wins a race he will never win again and the gravy train will come to an end. There are not enough BM 56’s to make money running a placing every second or third start. At the BM52 level the prize money is probably insufficient to stay in the black.
The prize money for maidens is paid down to 10th placing. Fourth gets $1,600 AUD
These races are bringing disrepute to the racing game.
BTW, Clive trialed recently in anticipation of another return to the race track. Guess where Clive finished in the trial? Yes, second.
And in a final update, Clive returns to competitive racing on Sunday (scratched).
Confirmation Bias
One of the biggest traps that any punter can fall into is having and punting based on, mostly unconscious, Confirmation Bias and by Dog it’s difficult to shake. We can go to the interweb and find out the real definition and it is,
“Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values. People display this bias when they select information that supports their views, ignoring contrary information, or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes”.
On most Saturdays, on X and other social media forums you will see racing’s biggest form of confirmation bias and it is nasty. The punter who thinks every selection he makes will win and when it does not, it is time to turn on the jockey.
During winter it will be the avid (feral) footy fan who reckons every ref/umpire call went against their team.
But the most over rated, over spruiked and downright incorrect piece of confirmation bias is the the roughie wins in small fields. Have a listen to your radio or television presenter next time a roughie wins in a small field, they will spruik this without fail.
Because it actually happens so rarely, people remember being told it and then waste their punting dough backing the hessian in the next few small fields they encounter.
I only have data on Maiden races but I am sure other classes in horse racing would follow similar trends (maybe my own confirmation bias) so here is some data to chew on.
Since March 2020, I have records for 308 races where there have been between 4 and 7 runners.
Of those 308 races, there has been 28 races (9%) where the winner has paid $11.00 or longer. Now that would be a good stat if there had of been only the 1 starter that started $11.00 or longer. However, of the 2042 runners that contested the 308 races, 929 or 45% of them had a SP of $11 or greater,
Now, of those 28 winners,
3 winners were the longest priced runners, they were priced at $16, $16 & $17
8 winners were the second longest priced runner in the race
9 winners were the third longest priced runner in the race
7 winners were the fourth longest priced runner in the race
1 winner was the fifth longest priced runner in the race, this runner was actually the second favourite.
So, next time you hear someone tell you to back the burlap sack in a field containing only a few runners you can now confirm that this is not true, it is incorrect, total hogwash.
Now excuse me while I go and read my horoscope.
More on Confirmation Bias on the punt.
Racing Coverage
BRING BACK THE HESSIAN SACK
The coverage of horse racing is in a very sad state. The name of the sport gives it away, the first word is horse, yet the horse(s) is/are the forgotten participants except for the more than casual punter for whom the coverage gives little. Or too much superfluous information.
I thought the coverage may improve once we got over Cup week, but alas, no. I follow the country racing and the coverage of Dunkeld last Saturday may well have been promoted as “Olivia’s Big Day Out”.
I am going to assume for this rant that people may watch the actual races on their mobile device. I doubt many people watch the parade and the lead up to a race on their ‘phone. If they do, they may have just found one reason their punting account balance keeps declining.
Most serious punters would watch the races on some large screen television or projected screen. The size of some televisions scares me.
Most money is on the first four horses in the market, yet in the parade ring, those four runners are gIven as much time as No.18, Ihavenohope, that is paying $201 on fixed odds. Why don’t we have all horses covered as is, but have a Picture in Picture, during the entire parade, of the three or four most favoured runners? Put the PIPs across the top of the screen at the bottom of the screen or down the side, I do not care just keep vision of these runners on the screen until they get to the barriers. They are the first four favorites for a reason, weight of money, that is the weight of the punters money and therefore the four horses that the weight of punters wish to observe.
Next, behind the barriers and this applies more to country tracks than to metropolitan courses, but, how hard is to put a camera(s) behind the barriers at all tracks? I would assume that even hiring some scaffolding for the day would be cost effective. There are not than many starting positions at most country tracks.
Even the race callers would love this. How many times do you hear a caller say that they cannot see what is happening behind (or in) the barriers? Plenty. And here is a thought, why not have this new cameraman wired up so they can communicate with the caller and tell him/her what is going on. Maybe we can find camerapeople who have some presentation skills and they could even be put to air telling the punters what they can see. Conversely, teach some of the spokemodels some camera operating skills and send them down there,
Still with country racing and especially at this time of year when we visit many of the once or twice of year courses. Personally, I would take the machete to the number of race tracks in Victoria but as we are currently stuck with them, let’s do something about the coverage. That is when there is coverage. Racing.com cannot seem to cope with 4 meetings of a Saturday so one of the provincial/country meetings gets zero coverage.
It is television and most punters can see. We don’t need a thousand presenters. More races and less talking is what I want.
Even some of the oft used courses have a load of trees inside the course, the caller cannot see the runners, the viewer/punter cannot see the horses and the chyron that supposedly tracks the horses place in the running is a conversation of its own.
Surely in this day and age there is a qualified, professional drone operator who could follow the race from a reasonable height? Is this another of the “insurance” risks that race clubs face? Or is it a fear of “in play” Betfair traders?
Don’t get me started on “lightening in the area”.
Even if it is not a drone is it possible to string some wires along the back straight and have some “spider cam” action. Keep the poles and remove the wires if this creates a hazard (struck by lightening!) at other times.
Another solution could be one of those aforementioned scaffolds erected, with camera person in place, along the back of the track, either inside or outside the track.
But no, just leave it as it is and employ another talking head.
The latest directors fancy seems to be showing the runners from behind, from Flemington to Dunkeld to everywhere in between. This pointless if we cannot see the colors. Can someone explain to the director that the reason jockeys wear different colored silks is for identification. Lookimg at the jockey’s arse helps little with this. Callers please note here: There is no point telling the viewer that different cap colors are being worn if you do not tell us what colors they are making a difference to.
Now, after the race has been run and won.
Why do we need to see a shed load of replays from artsy, fartsy angles, after the race, when,
We are waiting for the numbers to be announced/shown
We are waiting for the result of a photo finish, (here’s an idea, show a replay and freeze frame of the actual finish of the placing in question).
Display the totes as soon as possible, (8 minutes it took the other day).
Put the totes on the screen and not in that interminable ribbon at the bottom. There is ample empty space on the screen.
All that is needed is one tote and your selected operators Fixed price.
If they continue with the ribbon, put the First Four divvy before the Duets. I have never known anyone who bets in Duets.
I need someone to explain to me the point of having a chyron running at the bottom of the screen that supposedly tells you the horses position in running? Why do we need all the other superfluous information on the screen like how many metres they have gone etc.,
The broadcaster should be teaching new punters about the colours of the silks that the jockeys are wearing rather than using a highly inaccurate chyron. The chyron can go an entire race without once displaying the correct order. Pointless and distracting.
The visual assumes the punters DO not know the colors, yet then confuse the watcher with an incorrect display.
The caller assumes the punter DO NOT know the colors as they will tell all and sundry that one jockey is wearing a black cap to distinguish it from another wearing a red cap. Most times they do not tell the viewers the actual silk colors the different caps are differentiating.
And finally for this rant, can the Race Clubs, Broadcaster and Stewards get together and cover up all the distance markers that are not in use for that days racing? I watched a race the other day that went past 4 different 1600m markers and 3 different 1400m markers, etc. Bring back the hessian sack.
I have stopped listening to the wireless. Beyond redemption.


