Lean Methodology, Efficiency, Teamwork & Communication

Werribee is the venue on Day 1 in the Year of the Horse. Let’s hope that it is also the Year of the Punter. I like three of the four races presented with the Bill Lawry the exception. However, R1 is the first leg of the EQ and investment I will further consider.

Form A to Zyrg

We specialise in Maiden races, races that are restricted to horses that have never won a race. Some punters hate them. We LOVE them, demonstrating that, time after time, that the majority of winners in Maiden races can be found, with a bit of effort.

It’s all in the data and we keep and analyse this data for you. Over 5 years of Maiden data. More than 6,000 races and 60,000 runners have their data stored in our vault. Our full story can be found here.

We have the data broken down by race type, by distance, by track, by age, by month, by day and by track condition. Whatever is happening we have it covered.

Details regarding how a certain type of Maiden qualifies as a betting race can be found here.

We practice Lean Methodology. Learn about Lean Punting here.

Find out more about each table we provide to help wth your selections by clicking the title above each table.

QUICK RUN THROUGH

TABLE 1 - FORM A to I

The Stables - The Price Given is based on this Stable winning % over the previous 12 months.

Check out the Bank Roll page for more details.

Lev

Lean Evaluation calculated prices for the Race. The “invest Amount“ is set to collect $30. If you are a $100 punter, the calculation for each horse is 100/Price Wanted. Prices set to 100%

Full descriptions and explanation can be found here.

Werribee, 17th February 2026

Race 1, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 2720m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A $4.60
B $4.20
C 6 $4.50
D $4.00
E $4.70
F 6 $4.30
G $3.60
H $4.80
I 6 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

Race 1 and they are back for their fortnightly cheque. Half these have no chance and half want to go around in another fortnight and collect another cheque. The N1 has only had the 2 starts so it is my selection. The quinella from his last start have both won since, the winner in a higher grade. The N6 has had a let up so toss it in for 2nd. The N2 seems to always run a drum and then the N5.

1 - 6 - 2 - 5

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
6 $2.10 $9.60
1 $4.00 $7.50
2 $5.30 $5.70
5 $18.70 $1.60
7
4
Total $24.40
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 1,6
Exacta 6 1,2
Trifecta 6 1,2 1,2,5

My records show the 2720m or thereabouts has been used once (6/5/24) since I have kept records. Hard to give the last handful then, That race, won by Whiskey Tango who was ridden by Will Gordon and trained by Patrick Payne, started at the skinny odds of $1.75. In the start prior to taking out the Werribee marathon, it was beaten by 3 lengths over 2400m with an SP of $5.50.

Werribee, 17th February, 2026

Race 2, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 1600m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A $4.60
B $4.20
C 8 $4.50
D 13 $4.00
E $4.70
F 8 $4.30
G 6 $3.60
H $4.80
I 8 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

This is a nice little race for a Tuesday and while I think the fave, N8, should win, I will not be taking anything less than $3.50. I have a feeling that the N6 at nice odds can run a huge race. Was not that faraway last time in a race I rated highly. I like the jockey change as well. Another at a price, N13 for third and then the N10 for your first fours. A race for the exotics

8 - 6 - 13 - 10

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
8 $3.70 $8.20
13 $7.10 $4.30
10 $7.60 $4.00
6 $8.30 $3.70
3 $10.70 $2.80
11 $15.90 $1.90
Total $24.90
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 8,10
Exacta 8 6,13
Trifecta 8,13 6,8,10,13 3,6,8,10,13
Last Handful - Werribee, Open, 1600, Prep Race Type Distance LM SP
31-Jan-25 G4 Every Little Thing Patrick Moloney D & C Feek $9.00 SU Open Mdn 1300 8.27 $41.00
12-Apr-25 G4 Ahab Zoe Waller Ciaron Maher $5.50 Other Open Mdn 2000 3.93 $4.00
15-Dec-25 G4 Princing Thomas Stockdale Jerome Hunter $2.70 Other 3 Mdn 1500 0.10 $5.00
12-Jan-26 G4 Komito Shane Foley Ciaron Maher $1.90 SU Open Mdn 1400 1.25 $10.00
1-Feb-26 G4 Mickidabeel Koby Jennings Aaron $9.00 SU Open Mdn 1500 5.40 $10.00

Werribee, 17th February 2026

Race 3, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 1400m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A 9 $4.60
B $4.20
C $4.50
D $4.00
E 9 $4.70
F $4.30
G 9 $3.60
H 9 $4.80
I 14 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

Poo Park can throw up a surprise here. My option here is N9, it dominates the Stables and has plenty of positives. Been up close in its last 2, both good races, jockey sticks and should sit on pace. The N14 next who also comes from a handy race and had a look at this track in a recent jumpout. Lev says the a debutant in 3rd, really? Okay, N11. The N3 is one of a few that could run 4th.

9 - 14 - 11 - 3

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
14 $3.40 $8.90
9 $3.40 $8.90
11 $8.10 $3.70
5 $10.30 $3.00
7 $14.80 $2.10
3 $20.10 $1.50
Total $28.10
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 9,14
Exacta 9 5,11,14
Trifecta 5,9,14 5,9,11,14 3,5,9,11,14
Last Handful - Werribee, Open, 1400, Prep Race Type Distance LM SP
31-May-25 G4 Ryanman Amy Hermann M & L Cerchi $2.40 Other Open Mdn 1450 1.65 $2.80
7-Dec-25 G4 Aloisi D Stackhouse Mick Price $7.50 SU 3 Mdn 1515 2.70 $17.00
15-Dec-25 G4 Suze Spritz Fred Kersley Lindsey Smith $3.20 SU Open Mdn 1000 0.30 $2.25
12-Jan-26 G4 Zuppa Inglese Beau Mertens Patrick Payne $2.10 SU 3 Mdn 1170 0.35 $3.30
1-Feb-26 G4 Frogs John Allen Ciaron Maher $2.50 FU 3 Mdn 1200 3.67 $51.00

Werribee, 17th February 2026

Race 4, Maiden, Set Weights, 3yo & Up, 1100m

From A to I
Stable

Tab No. Historic Price

A 12 $4.60
B $4.20
C $4.50
D $4.00
E 12 $4.70
F 5 $4.30
G 12 $3.60
H 5 $4.80
I 5 $3.70

Zyrg Says:

Another chance for the N5 in R4 but it needs to put it all together and that starts by jumping well. If it sits in the first 4 I cannot see anything getting past it. After it I have the N11 who was VG on debut. Another who needs to sit a little closer. The N12 comes out of that good race I mentioned in an earlier contest. We should get $201 about the 4th pick, N15

5 - 11 - 12 - 15

Lev
TAB
No.
Price Wanted

Invest
Amount
5 $2.00 $15.00
11 $6.60 $4.60
8 $8.60 $3.50
12 $14.10 $2.20
3 $24.60 $1.30
14
Total $26.60
Zyrg Exotics
Type For 1st
For 2nd
For 3rd
Quinella 5,12
Exacta 5 8,11,12
Trifecta 5,11 5,8,11,12 4,5,8,11,12,15
Last Handful - Werribee, Open, 1100, Prep Race Type Distance LM SP
18-Feb-24 G4 Isthmus Luke Currie A & S Freedman $1.80 FU 3F Mdn 1121 2.05 $1.80
21-Dec-24 G4 Verdoux Liam Riordan L & T Corstens $3.20 FS FS FS FS FS
7-Dec-25 S5 Tennessee Song Linda Meech Tom Dabernig $6.00 FS FS FS FS FS
15-Dec-25 G4 Insain Harry Liam Riordan L & T Corstens $1.50 FU Open Mdn 1100 3.25 $4.80
12-Jan-26 G4 Pure Silk Jackie Beriman Brian McGrath $3.10 Other 3F Mdn 1000 3.56 $21.00

Saturday Selections

Another low key day around the country. Will wait a week, maybe 2 before getting excited in the Carnivals of Autumn.

Two at Morphetville for you, R7 N8, go eachway and a dominate bush winner last start, R9 N10. Also take it in a quinella with N7.

Back to Ballarat, I feel we can get the quaddy at Dowling Forrest.

6,10,11 x 11 x 5,7 x 12,13,14

Non competitive Racing

Is it less expensive to keep a horse in training than to retire it?

I ask this question as the amount of distance maidens that are contested in Victoria borders on the ridiculous. I would also go as far as this continued process of propping up horses (and connections) that will never win one race let alone go on to better things could bring a charge of bring disrepute to the industry.

The Prize Money allocated to these races could well be better utilised but first some facts.

The horse I have looked at for this exercise has had 50 starts for zero, nil, zilch wins.  It has been placed second on 6 occasions and placed third in a further 10 races. Let’s call him Clive. Clive is a 7 year old gelding.

Clive has won, with bonuses, 149,418 AUD in prize money. Yes, a non winner has won just shy of 150,000 AUD.

Clive had 17 starts in 2025 and ran second 5 times with two thirds as well a number of fourths and fifth and among his best performances.

Clive generally races near the lead but on occasions gets out the back. When he leads he generally gets bloused on the post and when ridden “quieter” storms home to just miss.

Clive, and he has a few mates in these distance maidens, wants to win but I think those who look after him, don’t want to win. Why would they?

And I do not blame the connections, they are playing the game that has been offered to them.

If Clive wins a race he will never win again and the gravy train will come to an end. There are not enough BM 56’s to make money running a placing every second or third start. At the BM52 level the prize money is probably insufficient to stay in the black.

The prize money for maidens is paid down to 10th placing. Fourth gets $1,600 AUD

These races are bringing disrepute to the racing game.

BTW, Clive trialed recently in anticipation of another return to the race track. Guess where Clive finished in the trial? Yes, second.

And in a final update, Clive returns to competitive racing on Sunday (scratched).

 

Confirmation Bias

One of the biggest traps that any punter can fall into is having and punting based on, mostly unconscious, Confirmation Bias and by Dog it’s difficult to shake. We can go to the interweb and find out the real definition and it is,

“Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or supports one's prior beliefs or values. People display this bias when they select information that supports their views, ignoring contrary information, or when they interpret ambiguous evidence as supporting their existing attitudes”.

On most Saturdays, on X and other social media forums you will see racing’s biggest form of confirmation bias and it is nasty. The punter who thinks every selection he makes will win and when it does not, it is time to turn on the jockey.

During winter it will be the avid (feral) footy fan who reckons every ref/umpire call went against their team.

 

But the most over rated, over spruiked and downright incorrect piece of confirmation bias is the the roughie wins in small fields. Have a listen to your radio or television presenter next time a roughie wins in a small field, they will spruik this without fail.

Because it actually happens so rarely, people remember being told it and then waste their punting dough backing the hessian in the next few small fields they encounter.

I only have data on Maiden races but I am sure other classes in horse racing would follow similar trends (maybe my own confirmation bias) so here is some data to chew on.

 

Since March 2020, I have records for 308 races where there have been between 4 and 7 runners.

Of those 308 races, there has been 28 races (9%) where the winner has paid $11.00 or longer. Now that would be a good stat if there had of been only the 1 starter that started $11.00 or longer. However, of the 2042 runners that contested the 308 races, 929 or 45% of them had a SP of $11 or greater,

Now, of those 28 winners,

3 winners were the longest priced runners, they were priced at $16, $16 & $17

8 winners were the second longest priced runner in the race

9 winners were the third longest priced runner in the race

7 winners were the fourth longest priced runner in the race

1 winner was the fifth longest priced runner in the race, this runner was actually the second favourite.

 

So, next time you hear someone tell you to back the burlap sack in a field containing only a few runners you can now confirm that this is not true, it is incorrect, total hogwash.

 

Now excuse me while I go and read my horoscope.

More on Confirmation Bias on the punt.

 

Racing Coverage

BRING BACK THE HESSIAN SACK

The coverage of horse racing is in a very sad state. The name of the sport gives it away, the first word is horse, yet the horse(s) is/are the forgotten participants except for the more than casual punter for whom the coverage gives little. Or too much superfluous information.

 

I thought the coverage may improve once we got over Cup week, but alas, no. I follow the country racing and the coverage of Dunkeld last Saturday may well have been promoted as “Olivia’s Big Day Out”.

 

I am going to assume for this rant that people may watch the actual races on their mobile device. I doubt many people watch the parade and the lead up to a race on their ‘phone. If they do, they may have just found one reason their punting account balance keeps declining.

 

Most serious punters would watch the races on some large screen television or projected screen. The size of some televisions scares me.

 

Most money is on the first four horses in the market, yet in the parade ring, those four runners are gIven as much time as No.18, Ihavenohope, that is paying $201 on fixed odds. Why don’t we have all horses covered as is, but have a Picture in Picture, during the entire parade, of the three or four most favoured runners? Put the PIPs across the top of the screen at the bottom of the screen or down the side, I do not care just keep vision of these runners on the screen until they get to the barriers. They are the first four favorites for a reason, weight of money, that is the weight of the punters money and therefore the four horses that the weight of punters wish to observe.

 

Next, behind the barriers and this applies more to country tracks than to metropolitan courses, but, how hard is to put a camera(s) behind the barriers at all tracks? I would assume that even hiring some scaffolding for the day would be cost effective. There are not than many starting positions at most country tracks.

 

Even the race callers would love this. How many times do you hear a caller say that they cannot see what is happening behind (or in) the barriers? Plenty. And here is a thought, why not have this new cameraman wired up so they can communicate with the caller and tell him/her what is going on. Maybe we can find camerapeople who have some presentation skills and they could even be put to air telling the punters what they can see. Conversely, teach some of the spokemodels some camera operating skills and send them down there,

 

Still with country racing and especially at this time of year when we visit many of the once or twice of year courses. Personally, I would take the machete to the number of race tracks in Victoria but as we are currently stuck with them, let’s do something about the coverage. That is when there is coverage. Racing.com cannot seem to cope with 4 meetings of a Saturday so one of the provincial/country meetings gets zero coverage.

It is television and most punters can see. We don’t need a thousand presenters. More races and less talking is what I want.

 

Even some of the oft used courses have a load of trees inside the course, the caller cannot see the runners, the viewer/punter cannot see the horses and the chyron that supposedly tracks the horses place in the running is a conversation of its own.

 

Surely in this day and age there is a qualified, professional drone operator who could follow the race from a reasonable height? Is this another of the “insurance” risks that race clubs face? Or is it a fear of  “in play” Betfair traders?

 

Don’t get me started on “lightening in the area”.

 

Even if it is not a drone is it possible to string some wires along the back straight and have some “spider cam” action. Keep the poles and remove the wires if this creates a hazard (struck by lightening!) at other times.

Another solution could be one of those aforementioned scaffolds erected, with camera person in place, along the back of the track, either inside or outside the track.

 

But no, just leave it as it is and employ another talking head.

The latest directors fancy seems to be showing the runners from behind, from Flemington to Dunkeld to everywhere in between. This pointless if we cannot see the colors. Can someone explain to the director that the reason jockeys wear different colored silks is for identification. Lookimg at the jockey’s arse helps little with this. Callers please note here: There is no point telling the viewer that different cap colors are being worn if you do not tell us what colors they are making a difference to.

 

Now, after the race has been run and won.

 

Why do we need to see a shed load of replays from artsy, fartsy angles, after the race, when,

 

  • We are waiting for the numbers to be announced/shown

  • We are waiting for the result of a photo finish, (here’s an idea, show a replay and freeze frame of the actual finish of the placing in question).

  • Display the totes as soon as possible, (8 minutes it took the other day).

  • Put the totes on the screen and not in that interminable ribbon at the bottom. There is ample empty space on the screen.

  • All that is needed is one tote and your selected operators Fixed price.

  • If they continue with the ribbon, put the First Four divvy before the Duets. I have never known anyone who bets in Duets.  

I need someone to explain to me the point of having a chyron running at the bottom of the screen that supposedly tells you the horses position in running? Why do we need all the other superfluous information on the screen like how many metres they have gone etc.,

 

The broadcaster should be teaching new punters about the colours of the silks that the jockeys are wearing rather than using a highly inaccurate chyron. The chyron can go an entire race without once displaying the correct order. Pointless and distracting.

 

The visual assumes the punters DO not know the colors, yet then confuse the watcher with an incorrect display.

 

The caller assumes the punter DO NOT know the colors as they will tell all and sundry that one jockey is wearing a black cap to distinguish it from another wearing a red cap. Most times they do not tell the viewers the actual silk colors the different caps are differentiating.

 

And finally for this rant, can the Race Clubs, Broadcaster and Stewards get together and cover up all the distance markers that are not in use for that days racing? I watched a race the other day that went past 4 different 1600m markers and 3 different 1400m markers, etc. Bring back the hessian sack.  

 

I have stopped listening to the wireless. Beyond redemption.