Prior Form
Firstly, let’s recap the Weights.
1/ Looking at an entrant issued a weight between 54kg & 56.5kg
2/ Looking with an entrant with one of the 6 highest relative weights from its start prior to the Cup.
Last years Cup winner, had its last start this season in the Ebor. It carried 61kg in a race where the lowest weight carrid was 57.5kg. The actual minmum weight for handicap purposes is 52kg. It was beaten 13.5 lengths.
Of our last 23 Geelong Cup winners,
1 has had their start previous to the Cup in New Zealand
2 have had their start previous to the Cup in France
4 have had their start previous to the Cup in the United Kingdom
16 have had their start previous to the Cup in Australia
Of the 16 winners that have started in Australia,
6 had their last start at Flemington
3 had their last start at Caulfield
2 had their last start at either Randwick or Cranbourne
I had their last start at either Benalla, Sandown or Moonee Valley.
In 2005, the Geelong Cup winner ran third in the Benalla Cup and its start prior to the Geelong Cup. It had won the Cranbourne Cup in 2004.
This years Benalla Cup has already been run and won, the first three over the line were,
PLYMOUTH Ben, Will & JD Hayes Blaike McDougall (6) 56kg
CHASING APHRODITE (GB) Henry Dwyer Eoin Walsh 0.46L (2) 54kg
I AM THE EMPIRE (IRE) Annabel & Rob Archibald Jett Stanley 1.46L (4) 54kg
The winner, Plymouth, currently has three nominations for Spring Majors, one of them being the Caulfield Cup.
More to come here as more lead up races are contested. But for the moment,
3/ Consider all runners who contested their prior start in Europe.
4/ Consider the runners who had their prior start at either Flemington or Caulfield.
There is nothing new in 3/ & 4/
The Bart Cummings
Don’t we all love a free galloping front runner and even if we have not backed them, hoping they hang on. In recent times we have had Pride of Jenni, before that a Melbourne and Caulfield Cup winner in Might and Power and way before that, my favourite “catch me if you can” equine athlete in Vo Rogue.
On Saturday at Flemington, in the Bart Cummings, we saw a free wheeling, Royally owned, Gilded Water try and run its opponents off their legs. It failed, but what a performance it was, hanging on for third.
Every cloud has a silver lining or in this case the Purple, Gold Braid, Scarlet Sleeves, Black Velvet Cap, Gold Fringe silks of H M the King and while it may be a pie in the sky wish to see Charlie in Breakwater, there is a strong hope that Gilded Water may go around in the Geelong Cup. The Caulfield Cup is its only other option to qualify for the Melbourne Cup.
Five of the last 23 Geelong Cup winners have come through the Bart Cummings. None of those runners have won the Bart Cummings. The losing margins of those 5 runners were between 1.1 lengths and 4.9 lengths.
Apart from Gilded Water (beaten 3.15L) four other of the beaten runners in the Bart Cummings are still to qualify, but are entered, for the Melbourne Cup with their best hope of qualifying being the Golden Ticket that the Geelong Cup can supply.
I think we can forget about Mormona, beaten 14L on Saturday.
That leaves,
Torranzino (2nd, beaten 2.75L)
Fernao (5th, beaten 3.75L)
Bur Dubai ((9th, beaten 7.34L)
and of course Gilded Water.
Getting at least 3 of those 5 in the Geelong Cup would add some real class to the race and I am sure that a couple of other Internationals currently enjoying the surrounds of Poo park can be added.
Fernao has ran very even runs at its last couple and is a winner over 2400m. Could it be the Geelong Cup winner?
But come on Ciaron, we want to see Gilded Water in action in the Geelong Cup.
Herbert Power
The Herbert Power Handicap was run and won at Caulfield last Saturday. Just a couple of decades ago, the Herbert Power was normally ran as the last race on the program as it was the final chance to qualify for the Caulfield Cup. It was a race that was always decribed as “time honored“. How times have changed, last Saturday it was Race 3. Race 3 was the first leg of the EQ and I had Plymouth, the Benalla Cup winner, one out in the first leg of said EQ. I was home and hosed with 100m to go.
Plymouth does not appear to get 2400m. On Saturday’s run, it get about 2372 metres. Plymouth is currently 23rd in the order of entry for the Caulfield Cup. I would change plans and go for the Geelong Cup, still 2400m but will be a race of less quality than the Caulfield mile and a halfer.
Our tip to contest the Geelong Cup from the Bart Cummings has still not qualified for the Caulfield Cup and would appear Breakwater bound. It is Fernao. We may even see More Felons, Young Werther and Post Impressionist down Geelong way.
I am eagerly waiting the Geelong Cup nominations so that I can come up with the winner for myself and Form A to Zyrg followers.
Distances that previous races have been contested over is not as important in the form study as it once was. Neither is the amount of days between the races.
In days of yore, you has horses gradually increasing the distance of their races in increments of 200 or 400 metres. This was normally achieved by running every 14 or so days. International trainers moving to train Australia and the influx of international runners in the Spring carnival hit these training methods for six.
Our last 23 winners of the Cup provide the following details in regards to distances.
The longest distance a runner has ran over was 3200m
The shortest distance a runner has ran over was 2000m
The median distance that the Geelong Cup winners ran over was 2400m
The quartile 1 & quartile 3 distances, which are the distances I will use are from 2350m to 2525m
From our last 23 runnings of the Cup,
The Maximum number of days between a winners last start and the Cup is 85 days (Qewy, 2016)
The Minimum number of days between a winners last start and the Cup is 10 days (Runaway, 2018)
The Median number of days between a winners last start and the Cup is 18 days
The 6 winners who had their prior run in Europe had an average 58 days between runs. We would call that first up from a spell, running a mile and a half first up from a spell was unheard of in Australia 25 years ago.
What do we make from the above?
Nothing that goes done in ink but we can pencil in,
5/ Do not be concerned about the European horse having their first run in Australia, this preparation, in the Cup.
6/ Look at Melbourne (Flemington then Caulfield) races over the next 2 Saturdays (Now refer to the Bart Cumming above for the Flemington meeting).
Losing Margins
One of the key form indicators in any race is how far the contestant was beaten by, or indeed won by, at its previous starts and in particular its last start. Most winners have been competitive in the previous start to the win, whatever the class, whatever the distance.
Let’s look at our previous 23 Cup winners in relation to their losing margins in the start immediately prior to the Cup.
The horse beaten the furthest at it is start prior to the Cup was last years winner Onesmoothoperator.
It was beaten 7 length.
One Cup winner won at their start prior to the Cup.
Zazzman (2003) won a 4yo +, one Metro win in the last year, race over 2000m on Turnbull Stakes day.
The quartile numbers, again, which are the numbers that I will use are horses that have been beaten between 0.5 lengths and 4.7 lengths at their start prior to the Geelong Cup.
Full details of this years entrants can be found here.