Prior Form
Firstly, let’s recap the Weights.
1/ Looking at an entrant issued a weight between 54kg & 56.5kg
2/ Looking with an entrant with one of the 6 highest relative weights from its start prior to the Cup.
Of our last 23 Geelong Cup winners,
1 has had their start previous to the Cup in New Zealand
2 have had their start previous to the Cup in France
4 have had their start previous to the Cup in the United Kingdom
16 have had their start previous to the Cup in Australia
Of the 16 winners that have started in Australia,
6 had their last start at Flemington
3 had their last start at Caulfield
2 had their last start at either Randwick or Cranbourne
I had their last start at either Benalla, Sandown or Moonee Valley.
In 2005, the Geelong Cup winner ran third in the Benalla Cup and its start prior to the Geelong Cup. It had won the Cranbourne Cup in 2004.
This years Benalla Cup has already been run and won, the first three over the line were,
PLYMOUTH Ben, Will & JD Hayes Blaike McDougall (6) 56kg
CHASING APHRODITE (GB) Henry Dwyer Eoin Walsh 0.46L (2) 54kg
I AM THE EMPIRE (IRE) Annabel & Rob Archibald Jett Stanley 1.46L (4) 54kg
The winner, Plymouth, currently has three nominations for Spring Majors, one of them being the Caulfield Cup.
More to come here as more lead up races are contested. But for the moment,
3/ Consider all runners who contested their prior start in Europe.
4/ Consider the runners who had their prior start at either Flemington or Caulfield.
There is nothing new in 3/ & 4/
Distances that previous races have been contested over is not as important in the form study as it once was. Neither is the amount of days between the races.
In days of yore, you has horses gradually increasing the distance of their races in increments of 200 or 400 metres. This was normally achieved by running every 14 or so days. International trainers moving to train Australia and the influx of international runners in the Spring carnival hit these training methods for six.
From our last 23 runnings of the Cup,
The Maximum number of days between a winners last start and the Cup is 85 days (Qewy, 2016)
The Minimum number of days between a winners last start and the Cup is 10 days (Runaway, 2018)
The Median number of days between a winners last start and the Cup is 18 days
The 6 winners who had their prior run in Europe had an average 58 days between runs. We would call that first up from a spell, running a mile and a half first up from a spell was unheard of in Australia 25 years ago.
What do we make from the above?
Nothing that goes done in pen but we can pencil in,
5/ Do not be concerned about the European horse having their first run n Australia in the Cup.
6/ Look at Melbourne (Flemington then Caulfield) races over the next 2 Saturdays
The next update will cover our entrants losing margin at its previous start to the Cup.